Trader consensus slightly favors the USA at 39.5% implied probability to win Group D ahead of the bundled KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR outcome at 38.5%, reflecting the razor-thin margins in this balanced group featuring the co-hosts, Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey following the April 1 final draw and playoff resolutions. The USA's home-soil advantage across multiple matches bolsters their edge, bolstered by a favorable head-to-head record (5-2-2 vs. Paraguay, 2-1-1 vs. Australia) and stars like Christian Pulisic, despite mixed March friendlies—a win over Belgium but a loss to Portugal—and Tyler Adams' hamstring recovery timeline. Turkey's recent unbeaten streak in four European warm-ups under Vincenzo Montella, powered by Premier League talent, keeps them neck-and-neck, while Paraguay's three clean sheets in CONMEBOL tune-ups and Australia's resilience add upset potential in the expanded group stage where top-two plus best thirds advance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEstados Unidos 40%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR 39%
Paraguay 15%
Australia 8.0%
$16,354 Vol.
$16,354 Vol.
Estados Unidos
40%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR
39%
Paraguay
15%
Australia
8%
Estados Unidos 40%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR 39%
Paraguay 15%
Australia 8.0%
$16,354 Vol.
$16,354 Vol.
Estados Unidos
40%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR
39%
Paraguay
15%
Australia
8%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus slightly favors the USA at 39.5% implied probability to win Group D ahead of the bundled KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR outcome at 38.5%, reflecting the razor-thin margins in this balanced group featuring the co-hosts, Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey following the April 1 final draw and playoff resolutions. The USA's home-soil advantage across multiple matches bolsters their edge, bolstered by a favorable head-to-head record (5-2-2 vs. Paraguay, 2-1-1 vs. Australia) and stars like Christian Pulisic, despite mixed March friendlies—a win over Belgium but a loss to Portugal—and Tyler Adams' hamstring recovery timeline. Turkey's recent unbeaten streak in four European warm-ups under Vincenzo Montella, powered by Premier League talent, keeps them neck-and-neck, while Paraguay's three clean sheets in CONMEBOL tune-ups and Australia's resilience add upset potential in the expanded group stage where top-two plus best thirds advance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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