Kimi Antonelli leads Polymarket trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability for Japanese Grand Prix victory after securing pole position at Suzuka with a lap three-tenths quicker than teammate George Russell, who sits second at 33.5%, locking out the front row in qualifying. Mercedes dominated all three practice sessions, with Antonelli and Russell consistently fastest amid Red Bull's struggles—Max Verstappen exited in Q2 at P11—highlighting the W16's superior Suzuka pace on the high-speed layout favoring straightline speed and cornering stability. Charles Leclerc's third place offers slim 4.5% hopes, while midfield starters trail far behind; race-day factors like starts, tire degradation, and strategy could still enable upsets despite the clear Mercedes edge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAndrea Kimi Antonelli 57%
George Russell 34%
Charles Leclerc 4.5%
Oscar Piastri 3.3%
$890,635 Vol.
$890,635 Vol.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
57%
George Russell
34%
Charles Leclerc
4%
Oscar Piastri
3%
Lewis Hamilton
1%
Lando Norris
1%
Max Verstappen
<1%
Pierre Gasly
<1%
Fernando Alonso
<1%
Alexander Albon
<1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
<1%
Sergio Perez
<1%
Esteban Ocon
<1%
Franco Colapinto
<1%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
<1%
Nico Hulkenberg
<1%
Valtteri Bottas
<1%
Oliver Bearman
<1%
Arvid Lindblad
<1%
Isack Hadjar
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 57%
George Russell 34%
Charles Leclerc 4.5%
Oscar Piastri 3.3%
$890,635 Vol.
$890,635 Vol.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
57%
George Russell
34%
Charles Leclerc
4%
Oscar Piastri
3%
Lewis Hamilton
1%
Lando Norris
1%
Max Verstappen
<1%
Pierre Gasly
<1%
Fernando Alonso
<1%
Alexander Albon
<1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
<1%
Sergio Perez
<1%
Esteban Ocon
<1%
Franco Colapinto
<1%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
<1%
Nico Hulkenberg
<1%
Valtteri Bottas
<1%
Oliver Bearman
<1%
Arvid Lindblad
<1%
Isack Hadjar
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.
Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.
Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kimi Antonelli leads Polymarket trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability for Japanese Grand Prix victory after securing pole position at Suzuka with a lap three-tenths quicker than teammate George Russell, who sits second at 33.5%, locking out the front row in qualifying. Mercedes dominated all three practice sessions, with Antonelli and Russell consistently fastest amid Red Bull's struggles—Max Verstappen exited in Q2 at P11—highlighting the W16's superior Suzuka pace on the high-speed layout favoring straightline speed and cornering stability. Charles Leclerc's third place offers slim 4.5% hopes, while midfield starters trail far behind; race-day factors like starts, tire degradation, and strategy could still enable upsets despite the clear Mercedes edge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes