Mercedes' commanding front-row lockout in qualifying at Suzuka, with Kimi Antonelli on pole (1:28.778) ahead of George Russell, has solidified trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability for the constructor to score first in the Japanese Grand Prix. This follows Mercedes' 1-2 finishes in FP1 and FP3, showcasing superior single-lap pace and setup on the demanding Suzuka circuit amid 2026's new regulations favoring their power unit. Ferrari's Charles Leclerc in P4 trails at 11.5% due to consistent top-four practice showings, while McLaren's Oscar Piastri (P3, 6.0%) benefits from recent form despite Lando Norris' unreliability issues. Red Bull's struggles, including Max Verstappen's Q2 exit, keep them at 1.6%, with upsets possible via poor starts, safety cars, or tire strategy missteps.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoMercedes 84%
Ferrari 12%
Mclaren Mastercard 6%
Red Bull 3.2%
$11,905 Vol.
$11,905 Vol.
Mercedes
84%
Ferrari
12%
Mclaren Mastercard
6%
Red Bull
3%
Alpine
2%
Racing Bulls
<1%
Aston Martin
<1%
Williams
<1%
Cadillac
<1%
Audi Revolut
<1%
Tgr Haas
<1%
Mercedes 84%
Ferrari 12%
Mclaren Mastercard 6%
Red Bull 3.2%
$11,905 Vol.
$11,905 Vol.
Mercedes
84%
Ferrari
12%
Mclaren Mastercard
6%
Red Bull
3%
Alpine
2%
Racing Bulls
<1%
Aston Martin
<1%
Williams
<1%
Cadillac
<1%
Audi Revolut
<1%
Tgr Haas
<1%
In the case of a tie between two teams for most points, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
As soon as the results for this event are known, this market will resolve.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 (F1).
Mercado abierto: Mar 11, 2026, 8:31 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the case of a tie between two teams for most points, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
As soon as the results for this event are known, this market will resolve.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 (F1).
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mercedes' commanding front-row lockout in qualifying at Suzuka, with Kimi Antonelli on pole (1:28.778) ahead of George Russell, has solidified trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability for the constructor to score first in the Japanese Grand Prix. This follows Mercedes' 1-2 finishes in FP1 and FP3, showcasing superior single-lap pace and setup on the demanding Suzuka circuit amid 2026's new regulations favoring their power unit. Ferrari's Charles Leclerc in P4 trails at 11.5% due to consistent top-four practice showings, while McLaren's Oscar Piastri (P3, 6.0%) benefits from recent form despite Lando Norris' unreliability issues. Red Bull's struggles, including Max Verstappen's Q2 exit, keep them at 1.6%, with upsets possible via poor starts, safety cars, or tire strategy missteps.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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