Elevated euro-area inflation, which reached 3.0% in April 2026 amid Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike as the dominant market-implied outcome at 86.5% for the June 11 decision. Following the April 30 meeting, where the Governing Council held the rate steady at 2.00% while highlighting intensified upside inflation risks and resilient labor conditions, traders have priced in tightening to anchor expectations against second-round effects. The modest 13.3% probability of no change reflects lingering data dependence ahead of fresh inflation and commodity readings, with negligible odds assigned to larger moves or cuts. The ECB's data-dependent stance and June meeting serve as the key near-term catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 87%
No change 13.3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$350,507 Vol.
$350,507 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
13%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
87%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 87%
No change 13.3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$350,507 Vol.
$350,507 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$64,069 Vol.
<1%
No change
$74,282 Vol.
13%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$86,400 Vol.
87%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$65,094 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Elevated euro-area inflation, which reached 3.0% in April 2026 amid Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike as the dominant market-implied outcome at 86.5% for the June 11 decision. Following the April 30 meeting, where the Governing Council held the rate steady at 2.00% while highlighting intensified upside inflation risks and resilient labor conditions, traders have priced in tightening to anchor expectations against second-round effects. The modest 13.3% probability of no change reflects lingering data dependence ahead of fresh inflation and commodity readings, with negligible odds assigned to larger moves or cuts. The ECB's data-dependent stance and June meeting serve as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$350,507Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Elevated euro-area inflation, which reached 3.0% in April 2026 amid Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike as the dominant market-implied outcome at 86.5% for the June 11 decision. Following the April 30 meeting, where the Governing Council held the rate steady at 2.00% while highlighting intensified upside inflation risks and resilient labor conditions, traders have priced in tightening to anchor expectations against second-round effects. The modest 13.3% probability of no change reflects lingering data dependence ahead of fresh inflation and commodity readings, with negligible odds assigned to larger moves or cuts. The ECB's data-dependent stance and June meeting serve as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$350,507Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated euro-area inflation, which reached 3.0% in April 2026 amid Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike as the dominant market-implied outcome at 86.5% for the June 11 decision. Following the April 30 meeting, where the Governing Council held the rate steady at 2.00% while highlighting intensified upside inflation risks and resilient labor conditions, traders have priced in tightening to anchor expectations against second-round effects. The modest 13.3% probability of no change reflects lingering data dependence ahead of fresh inflation and commodity readings, with negligible odds assigned to larger moves or cuts. The ECB's data-dependent stance and June meeting serve as the key near-term catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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