Polymarket traders price an 84% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) target overnight interbank rate at 6.75% for the May 7 decision, reflecting a consensus pause after the central bank's dovish surprise 25 basis point cut on March 26—a 3-2 split vote prioritizing early-2026 economic weakness, including January's 0.9% contraction in activity, over accelerating headline inflation at 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March. Revised-upward inflation forecasts through Q3 2026 and Governor Rodríguez's March 30 remarks signaling the easing cycle is "close to finishing" anchor the hold bias, with modest 14.5% odds on a further cut amid resilient unemployment at 2.7%. Key catalysts include forthcoming March CPI and April 9 core inflation data.