Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their Euro 2024 triumph, unmatched midfield depth featuring Rodri, Pedri, and Lamine Yamal, and strong March friendlies underscoring seamless transitions from qualifiers. England (12.8%) and France (11.2%) trail closely, bolstered by recent Nations League form and France's dominant friendly wins over Brazil and Colombia last week, highlighting squad versatility amid Mbappé's peak. Defending champions Argentina (9.8%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive threats via CONMEBOL dominance and Messi-led momentum, while Portugal slips to 6.8% on Cristiano Ronaldo's ongoing hamstring injury sidelining him from March camps. With playoffs wrapping March 31—Sweden and Poland advancing—the expanded 48-team field and balanced group draw post-final reveal keep probabilities tightly bunched among Europe's elite and South America's qualifiers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
Francia 11.2%
Argentina 9.8%
$429,200,389 Vol.
$429,200,389 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Italia
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
España 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
Francia 11.2%
Argentina 9.8%
$429,200,389 Vol.
$429,200,389 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Italia
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their Euro 2024 triumph, unmatched midfield depth featuring Rodri, Pedri, and Lamine Yamal, and strong March friendlies underscoring seamless transitions from qualifiers. England (12.8%) and France (11.2%) trail closely, bolstered by recent Nations League form and France's dominant friendly wins over Brazil and Colombia last week, highlighting squad versatility amid Mbappé's peak. Defending champions Argentina (9.8%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive threats via CONMEBOL dominance and Messi-led momentum, while Portugal slips to 6.8% on Cristiano Ronaldo's ongoing hamstring injury sidelining him from March camps. With playoffs wrapping March 31—Sweden and Poland advancing—the expanded 48-team field and balanced group draw post-final reveal keep probabilities tightly bunched among Europe's elite and South America's qualifiers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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