Spain holds a narrow lead in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by retaining the #1 FIFA ranking after a commanding 3-0 friendly victory over Serbia last week and a favorable Group H draw against debutants Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay—positioning them for an easy group stage advance. France surged to #2 in rankings following a 2-1 upset of Brazil in a recent World Cup tuneup, bolstering their depth around Mbappé, while England drew 1-1 with Uruguay and Argentina leaned on Messi’s experience in qualifiers. The tight race among top European and South American contenders reflects the expanded 48-team format's parity, balanced group paths for favorites, and the grueling knockout rounds ahead where momentum and upsets can shift outcomes dramatically.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 16.4%
Inglaterra 12.5%
Francia 12.3%
Argentina 9.4%
$450,011,896 Vol.
$450,011,896 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
España 16.4%
Inglaterra 12.5%
Francia 12.3%
Argentina 9.4%
$450,011,896 Vol.
$450,011,896 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a narrow lead in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by retaining the #1 FIFA ranking after a commanding 3-0 friendly victory over Serbia last week and a favorable Group H draw against debutants Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay—positioning them for an easy group stage advance. France surged to #2 in rankings following a 2-1 upset of Brazil in a recent World Cup tuneup, bolstering their depth around Mbappé, while England drew 1-1 with Uruguay and Argentina leaned on Messi’s experience in qualifiers. The tight race among top European and South American contenders reflects the expanded 48-team format's parity, balanced group paths for favorites, and the grueling knockout rounds ahead where momentum and upsets can shift outcomes dramatically.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes