Spain tops trader consensus at 16% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign—topping their group unbeaten—and a youthful squad blending Euro 2024 winners like Rodri and Pedri with breakout stars such as Lamine Yamal, maintaining peak form into March friendlies. The race stays tight among Europe and South America's elite, with England (13%) buoyed by Harry Kane's scoring streak and balanced depth, France (11%) sharpened by a recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil highlighting Kylian Mbappé's threat, and Argentina (10%) leaning on Lionel Messi's leadership despite an aging core post-Copa América retention. Brazil (9%) lags amid transitional woes, while the expanded 48-team format, advanced group stage progression, and host advantages for USA, Canada, and Mexico heighten upset potential in knockouts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
Francia 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$422,964,418 Vol.
$422,964,418 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Italia
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
España 15.8%
Inglaterra 12.8%
Francia 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$422,964,418 Vol.
$422,964,418 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
11%
Argentina
10%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Italia
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain tops trader consensus at 16% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign—topping their group unbeaten—and a youthful squad blending Euro 2024 winners like Rodri and Pedri with breakout stars such as Lamine Yamal, maintaining peak form into March friendlies. The race stays tight among Europe and South America's elite, with England (13%) buoyed by Harry Kane's scoring streak and balanced depth, France (11%) sharpened by a recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil highlighting Kylian Mbappé's threat, and Argentina (10%) leaning on Lionel Messi's leadership despite an aging core post-Copa América retention. Brazil (9%) lags amid transitional woes, while the expanded 48-team format, advanced group stage progression, and host advantages for USA, Canada, and Mexico heighten upset potential in knockouts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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