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Will Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July?

Market icon

Will Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$99,122 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$99,122 Vol.

On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs above the 10% baseline on 76 countries (59 countries specifically listed and the EU). See: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/03/trumps-tariffs-the-full-list.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes the blanket "reciprocal" tariff on imports from 39 of the listed countries by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove the general ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on imports from the listed country will qualify, however item specific exceptions or changes to tariffs which are not the general reciprocal tariff will not count.

A reduction in the reciprocal 20% tariff on the EU will count for all 27 countries. A reduction in the reciprocal tariff on a specific EU member state will also count towards the total.

The removal or reduction of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S. will not qualify.

Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.
Volumen
$99,122
Enddatum
Jun 30, 2025
Markt eröffnet
Apr 3, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs above the 10% baseline on 76 countries (59 countries specifically listed and the EU). See: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/03/trumps-tariffs-the-full-list. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes the blanket "reciprocal" tariff on imports from 39 of the listed countries by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove the general ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on imports from the listed country will qualify, however item specific exceptions or changes to tariffs which are not the general reciprocal tariff will not count. A reduction in the reciprocal 20% tariff on the EU will count for all 27 countries. A reduction in the reciprocal tariff on a specific EU member state will also count towards the total. The removal or reduction of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S. will not qualify. Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes

On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs above the 10% baseline on 76 countries (59 countries specifically listed and the EU). See: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/03/trumps-tariffs-the-full-list.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes the blanket "reciprocal" tariff on imports from 39 of the listed countries by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove the general ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on imports from the listed country will qualify, however item specific exceptions or changes to tariffs which are not the general reciprocal tariff will not count.

A reduction in the reciprocal 20% tariff on the EU will count for all 27 countries. A reduction in the reciprocal tariff on a specific EU member state will also count towards the total.

The removal or reduction of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S. will not qualify.

Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.
Volumen
$99,122
Enddatum
Jun 30, 2025
Markt eröffnet
Apr 3, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs above the 10% baseline on 76 countries (59 countries specifically listed and the EU). See: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/03/trumps-tariffs-the-full-list. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes the blanket "reciprocal" tariff on imports from 39 of the listed countries by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove the general ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on imports from the listed country will qualify, however item specific exceptions or changes to tariffs which are not the general reciprocal tariff will not count. A reduction in the reciprocal 20% tariff on the EU will count for all 27 countries. A reduction in the reciprocal tariff on a specific EU member state will also count towards the total. The removal or reduction of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S. will not qualify. Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July?" has generated $99.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.