OpenAI's abrupt shutdown of its Sora social app last week—its experimental TikTok-like platform for sharing AI-generated videos launched in late 2025—has solidified trader consensus at 73.5% implied probability for "No" on releasing a social network in 2026. Despite early 2025 rumors of an X-rivaling prototype and January reports of a bot-proof network with biometric verification, Sora's quick demise after six months, citing $15 million daily compute costs, meager $2.1 million revenue, and Hollywood backlash, underscores OpenAI's pivot to core artificial intelligence priorities like model training, humanoid robotics via "world simulation," and a screenless hardware device slated for late 2026. With IPO preparations rumored for year-end and resources funneled toward profitability amid $14 billion projected 2026 losses, traders see scant room for another social media foray, though an unannounced pivot remains a tail risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's abrupt shutdown of its Sora social app last week—its experimental TikTok-like platform for sharing AI-generated videos launched in late 2025—has solidified trader consensus at 73.5% implied probability for "No" on releasing a social network in 2026. Despite early 2025 rumors of an X-rivaling prototype and January reports of a bot-proof network with biometric verification, Sora's quick demise after six months, citing $15 million daily compute costs, meager $2.1 million revenue, and Hollywood backlash, underscores OpenAI's pivot to core artificial intelligence priorities like model training, humanoid robotics via "world simulation," and a screenless hardware device slated for late 2026. With IPO preparations rumored for year-end and resources funneled toward profitability amid $14 billion projected 2026 losses, traders see scant room for another social media foray, though an unannounced pivot remains a tail risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Volumen
$4,956Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's abrupt shutdown of its Sora social app last week—its experimental TikTok-like platform for sharing AI-generated videos launched in late 2025—has solidified trader consensus at 73.5% implied probability for "No" on releasing a social network in 2026. Despite early 2025 rumors of an X-rivaling prototype and January reports of a bot-proof network with biometric verification, Sora's quick demise after six months, citing $15 million daily compute costs, meager $2.1 million revenue, and Hollywood backlash, underscores OpenAI's pivot to core artificial intelligence priorities like model training, humanoid robotics via "world simulation," and a screenless hardware device slated for late 2026. With IPO preparations rumored for year-end and resources funneled toward profitability amid $14 billion projected 2026 losses, traders see scant room for another social media foray, though an unannounced pivot remains a tail risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$4,956Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's abrupt shutdown of its Sora social app last week—its experimental TikTok-like platform for sharing AI-generated videos launched in late 2025—has solidified trader consensus at 73.5% implied probability for "No" on releasing a social network in 2026. Despite early 2025 rumors of an X-rivaling prototype and January reports of a bot-proof network with biometric verification, Sora's quick demise after six months, citing $15 million daily compute costs, meager $2.1 million revenue, and Hollywood backlash, underscores OpenAI's pivot to core artificial intelligence priorities like model training, humanoid robotics via "world simulation," and a screenless hardware device slated for late 2026. With IPO preparations rumored for year-end and resources funneled toward profitability amid $14 billion projected 2026 losses, traders see scant room for another social media foray, though an unannounced pivot remains a tail risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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