Recent policy developments have reinforced trader expectations against further government-mandated removals of major AI models this year. Following the June 2026 Commerce Department directive that forced Anthropic to disable public access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 frontier large language models over national security concerns, the Trump administration finalized a voluntary pre-release review framework in early August that explicitly exempts U.S. open-weight models and focuses testing on closed, proprietary systems demonstrating advanced cyber capabilities. This approach, combined with executive emphasis on innovation partnerships rather than broad export controls, has produced limited follow-on actions and no comparable restrictions on other leading developers. Key near-term catalysts include any new benchmark thresholds or classified assessments that could trigger additional directives, though current sentiment reflects skepticism that such steps will broadly curtail public availability before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEntfernt die US-Regierung 2026 den öffentlichen Zugang zu einem anderen großen KI-Modell?
Ja
$15,547 Vol.
$15,547 Vol.
Ja
$15,547 Vol.
$15,547 Vol.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent policy developments have reinforced trader expectations against further government-mandated removals of major AI models this year. Following the June 2026 Commerce Department directive that forced Anthropic to disable public access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 frontier large language models over national security concerns, the Trump administration finalized a voluntary pre-release review framework in early August that explicitly exempts U.S. open-weight models and focuses testing on closed, proprietary systems demonstrating advanced cyber capabilities. This approach, combined with executive emphasis on innovation partnerships rather than broad export controls, has produced limited follow-on actions and no comparable restrictions on other leading developers. Key near-term catalysts include any new benchmark thresholds or classified assessments that could trigger additional directives, though current sentiment reflects skepticism that such steps will broadly curtail public availability before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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