This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Azerbaijan commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Armenia between February 14 and March 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by the Azerbaijan, Armenia, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.