Trader consensus positions Tom Aspinall as the slight favorite at 37% implied probability to claim UFC Heavyweight championship by December 31, 2026, buoyed by his pound-for-pound ranking and finishing prowess despite lingering eye injury recovery limiting his 2026 activity and sparking title vacancy speculation. Ciryl Gane, the undisputed champion per March 31 rankings, sits at 16% amid doubts over his grappling vulnerabilities exposed in past contender bouts. Derrick Lewis (26.5%) and Sergei Pavlovich (25.6%) draw support from knockout power and momentum—Lewis's veteran striking threat persisting post-January loss to Waldo Cortes Acosta (16.5%), who extended his streak with that KO/TKO before his upcoming Volkov clash, while Pavlovich rebounded with decisions over Rozenstruik and Cortes Acosta. Ante Delija (24.6%) and Serghei Spivac (15.2%) reflect ranked climbs, with Spivac's February unanimous decision over Delija bolstering the Moldovan's submission game in a fluid top-five shuffle.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertTom Aspinall 42%
Derrick Lewis 25.9%
Sergei Pavlovich 25.6%
Ciryl Gane 16%
$28,837 Vol.
$28,837 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
38%
Derrick Lewis
26%
Sergei Pavlovich
26%
Ciryl Gane
16%
Curtis Blaydes
7%
Marcin Tybura
7%
Serghei Spivac
15%
Alexander Volkov
9%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
1%
Jailton Almeida
7%
Ante Delija
25%
Tom Aspinall 42%
Derrick Lewis 25.9%
Sergei Pavlovich 25.6%
Ciryl Gane 16%
$28,837 Vol.
$28,837 Vol.
Tom Aspinall
38%
Derrick Lewis
26%
Sergei Pavlovich
26%
Ciryl Gane
16%
Curtis Blaydes
7%
Marcin Tybura
7%
Serghei Spivac
15%
Alexander Volkov
9%
Waldo Cortes Acosta
1%
Jailton Almeida
7%
Ante Delija
25%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus positions Tom Aspinall as the slight favorite at 37% implied probability to claim UFC Heavyweight championship by December 31, 2026, buoyed by his pound-for-pound ranking and finishing prowess despite lingering eye injury recovery limiting his 2026 activity and sparking title vacancy speculation. Ciryl Gane, the undisputed champion per March 31 rankings, sits at 16% amid doubts over his grappling vulnerabilities exposed in past contender bouts. Derrick Lewis (26.5%) and Sergei Pavlovich (25.6%) draw support from knockout power and momentum—Lewis's veteran striking threat persisting post-January loss to Waldo Cortes Acosta (16.5%), who extended his streak with that KO/TKO before his upcoming Volkov clash, while Pavlovich rebounded with decisions over Rozenstruik and Cortes Acosta. Ante Delija (24.6%) and Serghei Spivac (15.2%) reflect ranked climbs, with Spivac's February unanimous decision over Delija bolstering the Moldovan's submission game in a fluid top-five shuffle.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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