Trader consensus in the UFC flyweight division reflects a tightly contested race for the 2026 year-end championship, with former titleholder Alexandre Pantoja leading at 40% implied probability despite his arm injury just 26 seconds into the December 2025 UFC 323 defense against Joshua Van, which elevated Van to champion. Tatsuro Taira (34.5%) enters as the #3-ranked challenger for Van's first defense on April 11 in Miami, buoyed by recent finishes and grappling edge over Van's speed. Manel Kape (33.5%), at #4 with knockout power, and current champ Van (25.5%) trail closely, highlighting stylistic uncertainties, recovery timelines, and Horiguchi's #5 surge in a deep 125-pound talent pool prone to upsets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAlexandre Pantoja 32%
Tatsuro Taira 18%
Kyoji Horiguchi 4.5%
Tim Elliott 2.3%
Alexandre Pantoja
41%
Tatsuro Taira
32%
Kyoji Horiguchi
5%
Tim Elliott
2%
Brandon Moreno
<1%
Brandon Royval
<1%
Asu Almabayev
<1%
Steve Erceg
<1%
Amir Albazi
<1%
Joshua Van
27%
Manel Kape
33%
Alexandre Pantoja 32%
Tatsuro Taira 18%
Kyoji Horiguchi 4.5%
Tim Elliott 2.3%
Alexandre Pantoja
41%
Tatsuro Taira
32%
Kyoji Horiguchi
5%
Tim Elliott
2%
Brandon Moreno
<1%
Brandon Royval
<1%
Asu Almabayev
<1%
Steve Erceg
<1%
Amir Albazi
<1%
Joshua Van
27%
Manel Kape
33%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 2, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the UFC flyweight division reflects a tightly contested race for the 2026 year-end championship, with former titleholder Alexandre Pantoja leading at 40% implied probability despite his arm injury just 26 seconds into the December 2025 UFC 323 defense against Joshua Van, which elevated Van to champion. Tatsuro Taira (34.5%) enters as the #3-ranked challenger for Van's first defense on April 11 in Miami, buoyed by recent finishes and grappling edge over Van's speed. Manel Kape (33.5%), at #4 with knockout power, and current champ Van (25.5%) trail closely, highlighting stylistic uncertainties, recovery timelines, and Horiguchi's #5 surge in a deep 125-pound talent pool prone to upsets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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