Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 99.6% implied probability for U.S. median home value falling in the $427,500–$430,000 range on April 1, 2026, driven by Parcl Labs' official Sales Price Index release confirming the settlement value—calculated as the national price-per-square-foot figure multiplied by 2,000 square feet median home size—precisely within this bin. This strong positioning reflects stabilization after late-2025 price declines, with January 2026 year-over-year growth slowing to 0.7% amid elevated mortgage rates above 6.5% and rising inventory, tempering appreciation. Realistic challenges are minimal post-release, though any data revisions or methodological disputes could marginally shift resolution, underscoring prediction markets' efficiency in aggregating real-money sentiment on housing fundamentals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie hoch wird der durchschnittliche Eigenheimwert in den USA am 1. April sein?
Wie hoch wird der durchschnittliche Eigenheimwert in den USA am 1. April sein?
427,5 - 430 Tsd. 100.0%
<420k <1%
420 - 422,5k <1%
422,5 - 425 Tsd. <1%
$28,344 Vol.
$28,344 Vol.
<420k
Nein
420 - 422,5k
Nein
422,5 - 425 Tsd.
Nein
425 - 427,5k
Nein
427,5 - 430 Tsd.
Ja
430 - 432,5 Tsd.
Nein
432,5 - 435 Tsd.
Nein
>435k
Nein
427,5 - 430 Tsd. 100.0%
<420k <1%
420 - 422,5k <1%
422,5 - 425 Tsd. <1%
$28,344 Vol.
$28,344 Vol.
<420k
Nein
420 - 422,5k
Nein
422,5 - 425 Tsd.
Nein
425 - 427,5k
Nein
427,5 - 430 Tsd.
Ja
430 - 432,5 Tsd.
Nein
432,5 - 435 Tsd.
Nein
>435k
Nein
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
Markt eröffnet: Feb 27, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 99.6% implied probability for U.S. median home value falling in the $427,500–$430,000 range on April 1, 2026, driven by Parcl Labs' official Sales Price Index release confirming the settlement value—calculated as the national price-per-square-foot figure multiplied by 2,000 square feet median home size—precisely within this bin. This strong positioning reflects stabilization after late-2025 price declines, with January 2026 year-over-year growth slowing to 0.7% amid elevated mortgage rates above 6.5% and rising inventory, tempering appreciation. Realistic challenges are minimal post-release, though any data revisions or methodological disputes could marginally shift resolution, underscoring prediction markets' efficiency in aggregating real-money sentiment on housing fundamentals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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