Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing March above 5,200, propelled by the index's surge to record highs near 5,250 on AI-driven tech gains and soft February CPI data fueling three Federal Reserve rate cut bets for 2024. Robust Q4 earnings from Magnificent Seven stocks, averaging 25% beats, underpin bullish sentiment, with $150 million in open interest signaling strong capital conviction. Key risks include March 12 CPI and March 19-20 FOMC outcomes; hotter inflation could trigger pullbacks to 5,100 support. Historically, March averages 1.2% gains, but current dynamics favor upside amid resilient U.S. economic growth at 3.1% Q4 GDP.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) hit in March?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit in March?
$53,875 Vol.
↓ 5700
3%
↓ 5600
4%
↓ 5500
5%
↓ 5350
1%
↓ 5200
1%
↓ 5000
1%
↓ 4750
1%
$53,875 Vol.
↓ 5700
3%
↓ 5600
4%
↓ 5500
5%
↓ 5350
1%
↓ 5200
1%
↓ 5000
1%
↓ 4750
1%
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX).
Note: S&P 500 (SPX) is represented by ^GSPC on Yahoo Finance.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing March above 5,200, propelled by the index's surge to record highs near 5,250 on AI-driven tech gains and soft February CPI data fueling three Federal Reserve rate cut bets for 2024. Robust Q4 earnings from Magnificent Seven stocks, averaging 25% beats, underpin bullish sentiment, with $150 million in open interest signaling strong capital conviction. Key risks include March 12 CPI and March 19-20 FOMC outcomes; hotter inflation could trigger pullbacks to 5,100 support. Historically, March averages 1.2% gains, but current dynamics favor upside amid resilient U.S. economic growth at 3.1% Q4 GDP.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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