As Q1 2026 nears its close on March 31, the S&P 500 has exhibited elevated volatility, with the VIX volatility index hovering around 25-30 amid a roughly 7% quarterly decline to 6,368.85. Key extremes include a +1.97% rebound on February 6 following early-year tariff threats and a -2.07% drop on January 20, while recent catalysts driving trader caution feature back-to-back losses exceeding 1.6% on March 26-27, fueled by tech sector selloffs and positioning ahead of earnings season. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on potential further swings from quarter-end rebalancing flows and early Q1 corporate earnings releases starting next week, against a backdrop of post-March FOMC rate path expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$327,972 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
5% Gewinn
1%
4% Gewinn
2%
3 % Gewinn
4%
2 %-Anstieg
19%
3 %-Verlust
4%
4% Verlust
2%
5 % Verlust
3%
$327,972 Vol.
5% Gewinn
$23,038 Vol.
1%
4% Gewinn
$13,121 Vol.
2%
3 % Gewinn
$5,552 Vol.
4%
2 %-Anstieg
$14,472 Vol.
19%
3 %-Verlust
$28,020 Vol.
4%
4% Verlust
$28,033 Vol.
2%
5 % Verlust
$176,701 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) decreases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).As Q1 2026 nears its close on March 31, the S&P 500 has exhibited elevated volatility, with the VIX volatility index hovering around 25-30 amid a roughly 7% quarterly decline to 6,368.85. Key extremes include a +1.97% rebound on February 6 following early-year tariff threats and a -2.07% drop on January 20, while recent catalysts driving trader caution feature back-to-back losses exceeding 1.6% on March 26-27, fueled by tech sector selloffs and positioning ahead of earnings season. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on potential further swings from quarter-end rebalancing flows and early Q1 corporate earnings releases starting next week, against a backdrop of post-March FOMC rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) decreases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
Volumen
$327,972Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) decreases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).As Q1 2026 nears its close on March 31, the S&P 500 has exhibited elevated volatility, with the VIX volatility index hovering around 25-30 amid a roughly 7% quarterly decline to 6,368.85. Key extremes include a +1.97% rebound on February 6 following early-year tariff threats and a -2.07% drop on January 20, while recent catalysts driving trader caution feature back-to-back losses exceeding 1.6% on March 26-27, fueled by tech sector selloffs and positioning ahead of earnings season. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on potential further swings from quarter-end rebalancing flows and early Q1 corporate earnings releases starting next week, against a backdrop of post-March FOMC rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) decreases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.
Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Volumen
$327,972Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
As Q1 2026 nears its close on March 31, the S&P 500 has exhibited elevated volatility, with the VIX volatility index hovering around 25-30 amid a roughly 7% quarterly decline to 6,368.85. Key extremes include a +1.97% rebound on February 6 following early-year tariff threats and a -2.07% drop on January 20, while recent catalysts driving trader caution feature back-to-back losses exceeding 1.6% on March 26-27, fueled by tech sector selloffs and positioning ahead of earnings season. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on potential further swings from quarter-end rebalancing flows and early Q1 corporate earnings releases starting next week, against a backdrop of post-March FOMC rate path expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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