Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Seoul's total April precipitation, with 55-60mm and 75mm+ outcomes tied at 26% implied probability each, diverging from the historical April climatological average of around 50-80mm reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Recent weekend rains on April 3-4 delivered 5-20mm across the Seoul metropolitan area via a passing frontal system, boosting early-month totals to roughly 10mm and elevating odds for higher bins. Divergent global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles project varying rainy day counts (typically 8) and intensities through late April, influenced by ENSO-neutral conditions favoring average moisture influx but sensitive to jet stream positioning and low-pressure development. KMA mid-term updates through April 14 signal 20-60% precipitation probabilities, with full-month resolution hinging on subsequent synoptic patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertPrecipitation in Seoul in April?
Precipitation in Seoul in April?
75 mm+ 34%
55-60 mm 26%
40-45mm 21%
65-70 mm 19%
NEU
NEU
30. Apr. 2026
<40 mm
20%
40-45mm
21%
45-50 mm
17%
50-55mm
18%
55-60 mm
26%
60-65mm
14%
65-70 mm
19%
70-75 mm
10%
75 mm+
27%
75 mm+ 34%
55-60 mm 26%
40-45mm 21%
65-70 mm 19%
NEU
NEU
30. Apr. 2026
<40 mm
$79 Vol.
20%
40-45mm
$52 Vol.
21%
45-50 mm
$128 Vol.
17%
50-55mm
$796 Vol.
18%
55-60 mm
$118 Vol.
26%
60-65mm
$79 Vol.
14%
65-70 mm
$163 Vol.
19%
70-75 mm
$74 Vol.
10%
75 mm+
$369 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in April, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Seoul's total April precipitation, with 55-60mm and 75mm+ outcomes tied at 26% implied probability each, diverging from the historical April climatological average of around 50-80mm reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Recent weekend rains on April 3-4 delivered 5-20mm across the Seoul metropolitan area via a passing frontal system, boosting early-month totals to roughly 10mm and elevating odds for higher bins. Divergent global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles project varying rainy day counts (typically 8) and intensities through late April, influenced by ENSO-neutral conditions favoring average moisture influx but sensitive to jet stream positioning and low-pressure development. KMA mid-term updates through April 14 signal 20-60% precipitation probabilities, with full-month resolution hinging on subsequent synoptic patterns.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in April, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$1,859Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in April, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Seoul's total April precipitation, with 55-60mm and 75mm+ outcomes tied at 26% implied probability each, diverging from the historical April climatological average of around 50-80mm reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Recent weekend rains on April 3-4 delivered 5-20mm across the Seoul metropolitan area via a passing frontal system, boosting early-month totals to roughly 10mm and elevating odds for higher bins. Divergent global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles project varying rainy day counts (typically 8) and intensities through late April, influenced by ENSO-neutral conditions favoring average moisture influx but sensitive to jet stream positioning and low-pressure development. KMA mid-term updates through April 14 signal 20-60% precipitation probabilities, with full-month resolution hinging on subsequent synoptic patterns.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in April, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,859Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Seoul's total April precipitation, with 55-60mm and 75mm+ outcomes tied at 26% implied probability each, diverging from the historical April climatological average of around 50-80mm reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Recent weekend rains on April 3-4 delivered 5-20mm across the Seoul metropolitan area via a passing frontal system, boosting early-month totals to roughly 10mm and elevating odds for higher bins. Divergent global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles project varying rainy day counts (typically 8) and intensities through late April, influenced by ENSO-neutral conditions favoring average moisture influx but sensitive to jet stream positioning and low-pressure development. KMA mid-term updates through April 14 signal 20-60% precipitation probabilities, with full-month resolution hinging on subsequent synoptic patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen