Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors fewer than 3.0 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 97.8% implied probability, driven by recent daily volumes consistently below this threshold amid a post-spring break lull. Official TSA data shows March 31 at a low 2.15 million, March 30 at 2.53 million, and a last-week average of 2.53 million—down year-over-year despite earlier record projections of 2.8 million daily for the season. Spring break peaks topped out around 2.8 million in late March, but weekdays have trended lower, pressured by government shutdown staffing strains now easing with back pay. An upset would require an unanticipated Easter prelude surge on Thursday ahead of Good Friday (April 4) and Easter Sunday (April 5), though historical patterns favor weekend spikes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNumber of TSA Passengers April 3?
Number of TSA Passengers April 3?
<3.0M 99.1%
3.0M-3.2M 1.3%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
>3.8M <1%
<3.0M
99%
3.0M-3.2M
1%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
<1%
>3.8M
<1%
<3.0M 99.1%
3.0M-3.2M 1.3%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
>3.8M <1%
<3.0M
99%
3.0M-3.2M
1%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
3.4M-3.6M
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
<1%
>3.8M
<1%
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors fewer than 3.0 million TSA-screened passengers on April 3 at 97.8% implied probability, driven by recent daily volumes consistently below this threshold amid a post-spring break lull. Official TSA data shows March 31 at a low 2.15 million, March 30 at 2.53 million, and a last-week average of 2.53 million—down year-over-year despite earlier record projections of 2.8 million daily for the season. Spring break peaks topped out around 2.8 million in late March, but weekdays have trended lower, pressured by government shutdown staffing strains now easing with back pay. An upset would require an unanticipated Easter prelude surge on Thursday ahead of Good Friday (April 4) and Easter Sunday (April 5), though historical patterns favor weekend spikes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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