President Trump's April 1 statement that U.S. military action against Iran could conclude in two to three weeks—potentially mid-April—has shaped trader consensus, yet ongoing strikes and Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states sustain 52.5% implied probability for action persisting through April 30. Recent U.S. Central Command precision strikes on underground Iranian targets on March 31, coupled with Tehran's vows of retaliation and attacks on tankers off Qatar, underscore persistent escalation despite White House signals of readiness to curtail operations. Lower probabilities on specific dates like April 28 (5.3%) and April 16 (4.2%) reflect uncertainty around diplomatic breakthroughs or Trump's planned national address on April 2, with no ceasefire in sight amid closed Strait of Hormuz and regional proxy clashes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMilitary action through April 30 53%
April 28 5.3%
April 16 4.2%
April 3 3.0%
$88,050 Vol.
$88,050 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
Before April
<1%
April 1
1%
April 2
1%
April 3
3%
April 4
1%
April 5
1%
April 6
1%
April 7
2%
April 8
1%
April 9
1%
April 10
1%
April 11
2%
April 12
2%
April 13
3%
April 14
2%
April 15
2%
April 16
4%
April 17
1%
April 18
1%
April 19
1%
April 20
1%
April 21
1%
April 22
1%
April 23
1%
April 24
1%
April 25
1%
April 26
1%
April 27
1%
April 28
5%
April 29
2%
April 30
3%
Military action through April 30
53%
Military action through April 30 53%
April 28 5.3%
April 16 4.2%
April 3 3.0%
$88,050 Vol.
$88,050 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
Before April
$4,957 Vol.
<1%
April 1
$11,074 Vol.
1%
April 2
$6,476 Vol.
1%
April 3
$4,399 Vol.
3%
April 4
$1,726 Vol.
1%
April 5
$1,853 Vol.
1%
April 6
$1,546 Vol.
1%
April 7
$7,147 Vol.
2%
April 8
$2,081 Vol.
1%
April 9
$1,990 Vol.
1%
April 10
$1,485 Vol.
1%
April 11
$1,665 Vol.
2%
April 12
$1,913 Vol.
2%
April 13
$2,202 Vol.
3%
April 14
$2,122 Vol.
2%
April 15
$1,565 Vol.
2%
April 16
$1,878 Vol.
4%
April 17
$1,485 Vol.
1%
April 18
$1,442 Vol.
1%
April 19
$1,915 Vol.
1%
April 20
$2,021 Vol.
1%
April 21
$1,941 Vol.
1%
April 22
$1,342 Vol.
1%
April 23
$1,341 Vol.
1%
April 24
$1,342 Vol.
1%
April 25
$1,342 Vol.
1%
April 26
$1,342 Vol.
1%
April 27
$1,468 Vol.
1%
April 28
$1,468 Vol.
5%
April 29
$1,533 Vol.
2%
April 30
$2,238 Vol.
3%
Military action through April 30
$9,748 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 1 statement that U.S. military action against Iran could conclude in two to three weeks—potentially mid-April—has shaped trader consensus, yet ongoing strikes and Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states sustain 52.5% implied probability for action persisting through April 30. Recent U.S. Central Command precision strikes on underground Iranian targets on March 31, coupled with Tehran's vows of retaliation and attacks on tankers off Qatar, underscore persistent escalation despite White House signals of readiness to curtail operations. Lower probabilities on specific dates like April 28 (5.3%) and April 16 (4.2%) reflect uncertainty around diplomatic breakthroughs or Trump's planned national address on April 2, with no ceasefire in sight amid closed Strait of Hormuz and regional proxy clashes.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volumen
$88,050Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 1 statement that U.S. military action against Iran could conclude in two to three weeks—potentially mid-April—has shaped trader consensus, yet ongoing strikes and Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states sustain 52.5% implied probability for action persisting through April 30. Recent U.S. Central Command precision strikes on underground Iranian targets on March 31, coupled with Tehran's vows of retaliation and attacks on tankers off Qatar, underscore persistent escalation despite White House signals of readiness to curtail operations. Lower probabilities on specific dates like April 28 (5.3%) and April 16 (4.2%) reflect uncertainty around diplomatic breakthroughs or Trump's planned national address on April 2, with no ceasefire in sight amid closed Strait of Hormuz and regional proxy clashes.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$88,050Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...President Trump's April 1 statement that U.S. military action against Iran could conclude in two to three weeks—potentially mid-April—has shaped trader consensus, yet ongoing strikes and Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states sustain 52.5% implied probability for action persisting through April 30. Recent U.S. Central Command precision strikes on underground Iranian targets on March 31, coupled with Tehran's vows of retaliation and attacks on tankers off Qatar, underscore persistent escalation despite White House signals of readiness to curtail operations. Lower probabilities on specific dates like April 28 (5.3%) and April 16 (4.2%) reflect uncertainty around diplomatic breakthroughs or Trump's planned national address on April 2, with no ceasefire in sight amid closed Strait of Hormuz and regional proxy clashes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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