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Wahl in Japan: LDP-Sitze Siegesspanne?

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Wahl in Japan: LDP-Sitze Siegesspanne?

LDP 250+ 100.0%

LDP <130 <1%

LDP 130-159 <1%

LDP 160-189 <1%

Polymarket

$101,594 Vol.

LDP 250+ 100.0%

LDP <130 <1%

LDP 130-159 <1%

LDP 160-189 <1%

Polymarket

$101,594 Vol.

LDP <130

$15,735 Vol.

Nein

LDP 130-159

$19,360 Vol.

Nein

LDP 160-189

$7,268 Vol.

Nein

LDP 190-219

$12,252 Vol.

Nein

LDP 220–249

$13,680 Vol.

Nein

LDP 250+

$28,568 Vol.

Ja

Andere Partei gewinnt

$4,731 Vol.

Nein

This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election (e.g. if LDP controls 290 and CRA controls 70 as a result of the election, the difference would be 220).

The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election.

If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”

If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).
Volumen
$101,594
Enddatum
Feb 8, 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 5, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election (e.g. if LDP controls 290 and CRA controls 70 as a result of the election, the difference would be 220). The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Wahl in Japan: LDP-Sitze Siegesspanne?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "LDP 250+" at 100%, followed by "LDP <130" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Wahl in Japan: LDP-Sitze Siegesspanne?" has generated $101.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Wahl in Japan: LDP-Sitze Siegesspanne?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Wahl in Japan: LDP-Sitze Siegesspanne?" is "LDP 250+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "LDP <130" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Wahl in Japan: LDP-Sitze Siegesspanne?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.