Iranian forces launched a cruise missile strike on the Panamanian-flagged AQUA 1 oil tanker—leased by QatarEnergy—on April 1, 2026, in northern Qatari territorial waters near Ras Laffan, causing a fire that was extinguished with no casualties or pollution reported, amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. This marks the latest in over 20 confirmed attacks on commercial shipping since March, claimed directly by Tehran in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, severely disrupting 20% of global oil flows through the strait. UK-hosted talks seek to halt attacks and reopen passage, while President Trump vows further operations, sustaining uncertainty over escalation, de-escalation signals, and maritime security.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$10,269 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
April 1
99%
April 2
21%
April 3
29%
April 4
18%
April 5
12%
April 6
22%
April 7
31%
April 8
42%
April 9
36%
April 10
31%
$10,269 Vol.
April 1
$7,618 Vol.
99%
April 2
$1,658 Vol.
21%
April 3
$622 Vol.
29%
April 4
$11 Vol.
18%
April 5
$76 Vol.
12%
April 6
$84 Vol.
22%
April 7
$141 Vol.
31%
April 8
$0 Vol.
42%
April 9
$11 Vol.
36%
April 10
$48 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iranian forces launched a cruise missile strike on the Panamanian-flagged AQUA 1 oil tanker—leased by QatarEnergy—on April 1, 2026, in northern Qatari territorial waters near Ras Laffan, causing a fire that was extinguished with no casualties or pollution reported, amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. This marks the latest in over 20 confirmed attacks on commercial shipping since March, claimed directly by Tehran in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, severely disrupting 20% of global oil flows through the strait. UK-hosted talks seek to halt attacks and reopen passage, while President Trump vows further operations, sustaining uncertainty over escalation, de-escalation signals, and maritime security.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volumen
$10,269Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iranian forces launched a cruise missile strike on the Panamanian-flagged AQUA 1 oil tanker—leased by QatarEnergy—on April 1, 2026, in northern Qatari territorial waters near Ras Laffan, causing a fire that was extinguished with no casualties or pollution reported, amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. This marks the latest in over 20 confirmed attacks on commercial shipping since March, claimed directly by Tehran in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, severely disrupting 20% of global oil flows through the strait. UK-hosted talks seek to halt attacks and reopen passage, while President Trump vows further operations, sustaining uncertainty over escalation, de-escalation signals, and maritime security.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$10,269Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian forces launched a cruise missile strike on the Panamanian-flagged AQUA 1 oil tanker—leased by QatarEnergy—on April 1, 2026, in northern Qatari territorial waters near Ras Laffan, causing a fire that was extinguished with no casualties or pollution reported, amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. This marks the latest in over 20 confirmed attacks on commercial shipping since March, claimed directly by Tehran in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, severely disrupting 20% of global oil flows through the strait. UK-hosted talks seek to halt attacks and reopen passage, while President Trump vows further operations, sustaining uncertainty over escalation, de-escalation signals, and maritime security.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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