Amid escalating US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leadership, and military sites—now in the fourth week of open conflict—Iran has launched multiple waves of ballistic missiles and cluster munitions targeting Israel, with seven barrages reported since March 25, alongside attacks on US troops in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies. Yemen's Houthis, Iran-backed proxies, fired their first ballistic missiles at Israeli military sites on March 28, broadening the fronts. President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling potential negotiations amid degraded Iranian missile capabilities but persistent retaliation risks through April 30, when the market resolves on verified direct Iranian military action against specified targets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$129,915 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
97%
UAE
92%
Kuwait
91%
Iraq
66%
Qatar
60%
Oman
53%
Lebanon
25%
Yemen
21%
Syria
28%
Pakistan
11%
Turkey
10%
Azerbaijan
9%
Cyprus
7%
UK
5%
India
5%
Poland
4%
Germany
3%
Italy
3%
France
3%
Ukraine
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Hungary
2%
Georgia
2%
Spain
2%
Armenia
2%
$129,915 Vol.
Bahrain
$2,451 Vol.
97%
UAE
$566 Vol.
92%
Kuwait
$1,102 Vol.
91%
Iraq
$482 Vol.
66%
Qatar
$280 Vol.
60%
Oman
$1,869 Vol.
53%
Lebanon
$895 Vol.
25%
Yemen
$317 Vol.
21%
Syria
$283 Vol.
28%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
11%
Turkey
$279 Vol.
10%
Azerbaijan
$543 Vol.
9%
Cyprus
$263 Vol.
7%
UK
$1,593 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
5%
Poland
$27,667 Vol.
4%
Germany
$4,233 Vol.
3%
Italy
$110 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Ukraine
$1,340 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$12,812 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$460 Vol.
2%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$579 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leadership, and military sites—now in the fourth week of open conflict—Iran has launched multiple waves of ballistic missiles and cluster munitions targeting Israel, with seven barrages reported since March 25, alongside attacks on US troops in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies. Yemen's Houthis, Iran-backed proxies, fired their first ballistic missiles at Israeli military sites on March 28, broadening the fronts. President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling potential negotiations amid degraded Iranian missile capabilities but persistent retaliation risks through April 30, when the market resolves on verified direct Iranian military action against specified targets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volumen
$129,915Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Umstritten
Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leadership, and military sites—now in the fourth week of open conflict—Iran has launched multiple waves of ballistic missiles and cluster munitions targeting Israel, with seven barrages reported since March 25, alongside attacks on US troops in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies. Yemen's Houthis, Iran-backed proxies, fired their first ballistic missiles at Israeli military sites on March 28, broadening the fronts. President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling potential negotiations amid degraded Iranian missile capabilities but persistent retaliation risks through April 30, when the market resolves on verified direct Iranian military action against specified targets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$129,915Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Umstritten
Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
Amid escalating US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leadership, and military sites—now in the fourth week of open conflict—Iran has launched multiple waves of ballistic missiles and cluster munitions targeting Israel, with seven barrages reported since March 25, alongside attacks on US troops in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies. Yemen's Houthis, Iran-backed proxies, fired their first ballistic missiles at Israeli military sites on March 28, broadening the fronts. President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling potential negotiations amid degraded Iranian missile capabilities but persistent retaliation risks through April 30, when the market resolves on verified direct Iranian military action against specified targets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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