US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership—initiated February 28 and now exceeding 10,000 targets—have prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliations against Israel and US regional bases, degrading Tehran's advanced stockpiles while achieving coalition air superiority within days. As of March 25, Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities amid ongoing airstrikes and threats of naval mines in the Gulf, attacks on energy infrastructure, and targeting US/Israeli banks if coastal or financial sites are hit. Traders assess Iran's constrained capacity for major escalation by April 30 against possible proxy actions via Houthis or Hezbollah, diplomatic breakthroughs, or ground operation signals, with no confirmed timeline for de-escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$87,726 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
97%
UAE
93%
Kuwait
91%
Qatar
60%
Iraq
42%
Lebanon
31%
Yemen
21%
Oman
21%
Syria
29%
Azerbaijan
10%
Turkey
9%
Pakistan
8%
Cyprus
6%
UK
5%
India
5%
Georgia
4%
Poland
4%
Germany
3%
Italy
3%
France
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Hungary
3%
Ukraine
2%
Spain
2%
Armenia
2%
$87,726 Vol.
Bahrain
$1,653 Vol.
97%
UAE
$544 Vol.
93%
Kuwait
$823 Vol.
91%
Qatar
$276 Vol.
60%
Iraq
$235 Vol.
42%
Lebanon
$781 Vol.
31%
Yemen
$312 Vol.
21%
Oman
$434 Vol.
21%
Syria
$283 Vol.
29%
Azerbaijan
$523 Vol.
10%
Turkey
$279 Vol.
9%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
8%
Cyprus
$91 Vol.
6%
UK
$1,583 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
5%
Georgia
$460 Vol.
4%
Poland
$1,285 Vol.
4%
Germany
$3,883 Vol.
3%
Italy
$100 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$1,569 Vol.
3%
Ukraine
$240 Vol.
2%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$579 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership—initiated February 28 and now exceeding 10,000 targets—have prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliations against Israel and US regional bases, degrading Tehran's advanced stockpiles while achieving coalition air superiority within days. As of March 25, Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities amid ongoing airstrikes and threats of naval mines in the Gulf, attacks on energy infrastructure, and targeting US/Israeli banks if coastal or financial sites are hit. Traders assess Iran's constrained capacity for major escalation by April 30 against possible proxy actions via Houthis or Hezbollah, diplomatic breakthroughs, or ground operation signals, with no confirmed timeline for de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volumen
$87,726Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership—initiated February 28 and now exceeding 10,000 targets—have prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliations against Israel and US regional bases, degrading Tehran's advanced stockpiles while achieving coalition air superiority within days. As of March 25, Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities amid ongoing airstrikes and threats of naval mines in the Gulf, attacks on energy infrastructure, and targeting US/Israeli banks if coastal or financial sites are hit. Traders assess Iran's constrained capacity for major escalation by April 30 against possible proxy actions via Houthis or Hezbollah, diplomatic breakthroughs, or ground operation signals, with no confirmed timeline for de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$87,726Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership—initiated February 28 and now exceeding 10,000 targets—have prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliations against Israel and US regional bases, degrading Tehran's advanced stockpiles while achieving coalition air superiority within days. As of March 25, Iran is reviewing a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities amid ongoing airstrikes and threats of naval mines in the Gulf, attacks on energy infrastructure, and targeting US/Israeli banks if coastal or financial sites are hit. Traders assess Iran's constrained capacity for major escalation by April 30 against possible proxy actions via Houthis or Hezbollah, diplomatic breakthroughs, or ground operation signals, with no confirmed timeline for de-escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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