Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 25°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by official observational data from the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport station, the market's resolving source, which recorded a maximum of 25°C amid partly cloudy skies and a stabilizing high-pressure system. This aligns with INMET monitoring showing mild autumn conditions typical for April, where historical averages hover around 24-25°C maxima, with cloud cover and moderate humidity capping daytime heating despite sunny intervals. Model forecasts from leading agencies like INMET had converged on this range pre-event, reflecting low wind shear and neutral ENSO influences. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from sensor recalibration could shift it, though INMET validations rarely alter settled readings by more than 0.5°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 14. April?
Höchste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 14. April?
25°C 100.0%
21°C oder weniger <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$81,236 Vol.
$81,236 Vol.
21°C oder weniger
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Ja
26°C
Nein
27°C
Nein
28°C
Nein
29°C
Nein
30°C
Nein
31°C oder höher
Nein
25°C 100.0%
21°C oder weniger <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$81,236 Vol.
$81,236 Vol.
21°C oder weniger
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Ja
26°C
Nein
27°C
Nein
28°C
Nein
29°C
Nein
30°C
Nein
31°C oder höher
Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 25°C at virtually 100% implied probability for Sao Paulo's highest temperature on April 14, driven by official observational data from the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport station, the market's resolving source, which recorded a maximum of 25°C amid partly cloudy skies and a stabilizing high-pressure system. This aligns with INMET monitoring showing mild autumn conditions typical for April, where historical averages hover around 24-25°C maxima, with cloud cover and moderate humidity capping daytime heating despite sunny intervals. Model forecasts from leading agencies like INMET had converged on this range pre-event, reflecting low wind shear and neutral ENSO influences. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc data correction from sensor recalibration could shift it, though INMET validations rarely alter settled readings by more than 0.5°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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