Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in San Francisco am 15. April?
Höchste Temperatur in San Francisco am 15. April?
62-63°F 100.0%
47°F oder darunter <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$61,980 Vol.
$61,980 Vol.
47°F oder darunter
Nein
48-49°F
Nein
50-51°F
Nein
52-53°F
Nein
54-55°F
Nein
56-57°F
Nein
58-59°F
Nein
60-61°F
Nein
62-63°F
Ja
64-65°F
Nein
66°F oder höher
Nein
62-63°F 100.0%
47°F oder darunter <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$61,980 Vol.
$61,980 Vol.
47°F oder darunter
Nein
48-49°F
Nein
50-51°F
Nein
52-53°F
Nein
54-55°F
Nein
56-57°F
Nein
58-59°F
Nein
60-61°F
Nein
62-63°F
Ja
64-65°F
Nein
66°F oder höher
Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen