Trader consensus favors the Netherlands at 58.5% implied probability to win Group F ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026, reflecting their No. 7 FIFA ranking, elite defensive depth with Virgil van Dijk, Jarrad Branthwaite alternatives, and consistent major tournament form, positioning them above Japan (20%). Japan's solid Asian qualification campaign and counterattacking prowess keep them competitive as a distant second. The UEFA Path B playoff winner—currently narrowed to Sweden after their 3-1 semifinal upset over Ukraine on March 26—holds a combined 16% across Albania, Poland, Sweden, or Ukraine, with Sweden facing Poland in the March 31 final; whichever advances enters as a mid-tier underdog against the favorites. Tunisia trails at 4.2% due to modest African qualifying path and historical group struggles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNiederlande 59%
Japan 20%
ALB/POL/SWE/UKR 16%
Tunesien 4.1%
$23,176 Vol.
$23,176 Vol.
Niederlande
59%
Japan
20%
ALB/POL/SWE/UKR
16%
Tunesien
4%
Niederlande 59%
Japan 20%
ALB/POL/SWE/UKR 16%
Tunesien 4.1%
$23,176 Vol.
$23,176 Vol.
Niederlande
59%
Japan
20%
ALB/POL/SWE/UKR
16%
Tunesien
4%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Netherlands at 58.5% implied probability to win Group F ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026, reflecting their No. 7 FIFA ranking, elite defensive depth with Virgil van Dijk, Jarrad Branthwaite alternatives, and consistent major tournament form, positioning them above Japan (20%). Japan's solid Asian qualification campaign and counterattacking prowess keep them competitive as a distant second. The UEFA Path B playoff winner—currently narrowed to Sweden after their 3-1 semifinal upset over Ukraine on March 26—holds a combined 16% across Albania, Poland, Sweden, or Ukraine, with Sweden facing Poland in the March 31 final; whichever advances enters as a mid-tier underdog against the favorites. Tunisia trails at 4.2% due to modest African qualifying path and historical group struggles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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