Recent hotter-than-expected October CPI prints, with headline inflation near 4% year-over-year and core measures around 2.8%, have reinforced trader views that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive stance into 2027. With the federal funds target range at 3.75-4.00% following the September hike and the October hold, market-implied odds for the April 27-28, 2027 meeting price a 62.5% chance of no change as the most likely path, reflecting expectations that any additional tightening occurs earlier at the December 2026 or January 2027 meetings. Solid October employment gains of 165,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1% support the case against near-term easing, while futures data show limited odds for cuts. The December FOMC projections and minutes will provide key updates on the pace of any further policy adjustment.
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