Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands 34.8% implied probability as the clear frontrunner, fueled by its February 28 UMK triumph blending virtuoso violin with theatrical flamethrower visuals that dominated both jury and public votes, sparking viral buzz and early model projections. France's Monroe follows at 13.2% after "Regarde!"'s recent operatic reveal propelled jury favoritism, while Denmark's Søren Torpegaard holds 10.3% on melodic televote appeal. Australia (7.9%) eyes jury strength potentially via Delta Goodrem, and Greece (6.6%) gains from fan polls amid ethnic diaspora support. With all 35 entries released, trader consensus highlights jury-televote divergences and staging previews as pivotal ahead of Vienna's May 12-16 semis and final.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertEurovision-Gewinner 2026
Eurovision-Gewinner 2026
Finnland 34.8%
Frankreich 13.2%
Dänemark 10.3%
Australien 7.9%
$50,058,196 Vol.
$50,058,196 Vol.

Finnland
35%

Frankreich
13%

Dänemark
10%

Australien
8%

Griechenland
7%

Israel
4%

Schweden
4%

Italien
2%

Ukraine
2%

Rumänien
2%

Zypern
1%

Malta
1%

Tschechien
1%

Bulgarien
1%

Schweiz
1%

Deutschland
1%

Luxemburg
1%

Moldawien
1%

Vereinigtes Königreich
1%

Belgien
1%

Kroatien
1%

Norwegen
1%

Albanien
<1%

Lettland
<1%

Armenien
<1%

Aserbaidschan
<1%

Georgien
<1%

Litauen
<1%

Montenegro
<1%

Polen
<1%

Serbien
<1%

Österreich
<1%

Estonia
<1%

Portugal
<1%

San Marino
<1%
Finnland 34.8%
Frankreich 13.2%
Dänemark 10.3%
Australien 7.9%
$50,058,196 Vol.
$50,058,196 Vol.

Finnland
35%

Frankreich
13%

Dänemark
10%

Australien
8%

Griechenland
7%

Israel
4%

Schweden
4%

Italien
2%

Ukraine
2%

Rumänien
2%

Zypern
1%

Malta
1%

Tschechien
1%

Bulgarien
1%

Schweiz
1%

Deutschland
1%

Luxemburg
1%

Moldawien
1%

Vereinigtes Königreich
1%

Belgien
1%

Kroatien
1%

Norwegen
1%

Albanien
<1%

Lettland
<1%

Armenien
<1%

Aserbaidschan
<1%

Georgien
<1%

Litauen
<1%

Montenegro
<1%

Polen
<1%

Serbien
<1%

Österreich
<1%

Estonia
<1%

Portugal
<1%

San Marino
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands 34.8% implied probability as the clear frontrunner, fueled by its February 28 UMK triumph blending virtuoso violin with theatrical flamethrower visuals that dominated both jury and public votes, sparking viral buzz and early model projections. France's Monroe follows at 13.2% after "Regarde!"'s recent operatic reveal propelled jury favoritism, while Denmark's Søren Torpegaard holds 10.3% on melodic televote appeal. Australia (7.9%) eyes jury strength potentially via Delta Goodrem, and Greece (6.6%) gains from fan polls amid ethnic diaspora support. With all 35 entries released, trader consensus highlights jury-televote divergences and staging previews as pivotal ahead of Vienna's May 12-16 semis and final.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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