Geopolitical supply disruptions from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran tensions have driven sharp inventory draws, keeping Brent and WTI crude prices elevated above $100 per barrel into mid-May 2026 and supporting the 72% market-implied odds for June settlement above $84. The Energy Information Administration projects global oil inventories will decline by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining prices near $106 per barrel through June before gradual recovery in Middle East flows eases pressure later in the year. This supply shock outweighs softer demand forecasts, with the International Energy Agency noting a potential 3.9 million barrels per day drop in global supply for 2026, while trader consensus reflects the high probability of sustained strength absent a swift de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any progress on reopening the strait or shifts in OPEC+ output decisions that could alter the current deficit trajectory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWorauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
Worauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
>$84 72%
$77-$84 18%
70–77 $ 8.0%
$63-$70 1.7%
$165,065 Vol.
$165,065 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
< $42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
70–77 $
8%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
72%
>$84 72%
$77-$84 18%
70–77 $ 8.0%
$63-$70 1.7%
$165,065 Vol.
$165,065 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
< $42
$17,545 Vol.
1%
$42-$49
$6,306 Vol.
1%
$49-$56
$7,485 Vol.
1%
$56-$63
$7,585 Vol.
1%
$63-$70
$21,216 Vol.
2%
70–77 $
$12,844 Vol.
8%
$77-$84
$14,085 Vol.
18%
>$84
$77,998 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply disruptions from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran tensions have driven sharp inventory draws, keeping Brent and WTI crude prices elevated above $100 per barrel into mid-May 2026 and supporting the 72% market-implied odds for June settlement above $84. The Energy Information Administration projects global oil inventories will decline by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining prices near $106 per barrel through June before gradual recovery in Middle East flows eases pressure later in the year. This supply shock outweighs softer demand forecasts, with the International Energy Agency noting a potential 3.9 million barrels per day drop in global supply for 2026, while trader consensus reflects the high probability of sustained strength absent a swift de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any progress on reopening the strait or shifts in OPEC+ output decisions that could alter the current deficit trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Volumen
$165,065Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply disruptions from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran tensions have driven sharp inventory draws, keeping Brent and WTI crude prices elevated above $100 per barrel into mid-May 2026 and supporting the 72% market-implied odds for June settlement above $84. The Energy Information Administration projects global oil inventories will decline by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining prices near $106 per barrel through June before gradual recovery in Middle East flows eases pressure later in the year. This supply shock outweighs softer demand forecasts, with the International Energy Agency noting a potential 3.9 million barrels per day drop in global supply for 2026, while trader consensus reflects the high probability of sustained strength absent a swift de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any progress on reopening the strait or shifts in OPEC+ output decisions that could alter the current deficit trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volumen
$165,065Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical supply disruptions from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran tensions have driven sharp inventory draws, keeping Brent and WTI crude prices elevated above $100 per barrel into mid-May 2026 and supporting the 72% market-implied odds for June settlement above $84. The Energy Information Administration projects global oil inventories will decline by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, sustaining prices near $106 per barrel through June before gradual recovery in Middle East flows eases pressure later in the year. This supply shock outweighs softer demand forecasts, with the International Energy Agency noting a potential 3.9 million barrels per day drop in global supply for 2026, while trader consensus reflects the high probability of sustained strength absent a swift de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any progress on reopening the strait or shifts in OPEC+ output decisions that could alter the current deficit trajectory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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