With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed, trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for "No" full ChatGPT outage, as OpenAI's status page reported no incidents classified as "Full Outage"—a complete downtime affecting ChatGPT across all users—through 11:59 PM ET. This high confidence stems from OpenAI's bolstered AI infrastructure, which handled March's frequent partial disruptions, like elevated SSO failures for enterprise workspaces on March 31 and degraded message sending earlier in the month, without escalation. While robust redundancy and rapid mitigations explain the streak, slim risks remain from potential resolution disputes over classifications or unprecedented technical failures triggering retroactive review, though historical patterns make these improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$18,258 Vol.
$18,258 Vol.
31. März 2026
$18,258 Vol.
$18,258 Vol.
31. März 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed, trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for "No" full ChatGPT outage, as OpenAI's status page reported no incidents classified as "Full Outage"—a complete downtime affecting ChatGPT across all users—through 11:59 PM ET. This high confidence stems from OpenAI's bolstered AI infrastructure, which handled March's frequent partial disruptions, like elevated SSO failures for enterprise workspaces on March 31 and degraded message sending earlier in the month, without escalation. While robust redundancy and rapid mitigations explain the streak, slim risks remain from potential resolution disputes over classifications or unprecedented technical failures triggering retroactive review, though historical patterns make these improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 16, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volumen
$18,258Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 16, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed, trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for "No" full ChatGPT outage, as OpenAI's status page reported no incidents classified as "Full Outage"—a complete downtime affecting ChatGPT across all users—through 11:59 PM ET. This high confidence stems from OpenAI's bolstered AI infrastructure, which handled March's frequent partial disruptions, like elevated SSO failures for enterprise workspaces on March 31 and degraded message sending earlier in the month, without escalation. While robust redundancy and rapid mitigations explain the streak, slim risks remain from potential resolution disputes over classifications or unprecedented technical failures triggering retroactive review, though historical patterns make these improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$18,258Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 16, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed, trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for "No" full ChatGPT outage, as OpenAI's status page reported no incidents classified as "Full Outage"—a complete downtime affecting ChatGPT across all users—through 11:59 PM ET. This high confidence stems from OpenAI's bolstered AI infrastructure, which handled March's frequent partial disruptions, like elevated SSO failures for enterprise workspaces on March 31 and degraded message sending earlier in the month, without escalation. While robust redundancy and rapid mitigations explain the streak, slim risks remain from potential resolution disputes over classifications or unprecedented technical failures triggering retroactive review, though historical patterns make these improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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