Recent outages and ongoing reliability issues with OpenAI’s Codex coding service, including the major 56-minute disruption on September 25 affecting web, API, CLI, and VS Code components, plus elevated errors spanning five hours on September 29, have shaped trader views. A partial outage impacting ChatGPT Desktop threads emerged on October 7, underscoring persistent authentication and scaling challenges. These incidents, followed by usage-limit resets and workarounds like API-key logins, highlight recurring infrastructure strain in a high-demand large language model deployment. With several months left in 2026 and no clear resolution to stability concerns, the 64% implied probability for another outage reflects aggregated trader assessment of these patterns.