Spain holds a slim 15.4% implied probability edge as trader consensus favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner, bolstered by their reigning UEFA European Championship title and a commanding 3-0 friendly victory over Serbia on March 27, where Mikel Oyarzabal netted a brace. The race remains tightly contested among top contenders—England at 12.8%, France at 11.1%, Argentina at 9.8%, and Brazil at 8.6%—following mixed March international results: France's resilient 2-1 win over Brazil despite a red card, England's 1-1 draw with Uruguay, and Argentina's narrow 2-1 defeat of Mauritania. With UEFA playoffs semifinals complete and finals pending March 31, the expanded 48-team field, star-laden squads featuring Mbappé and Messi, and balanced group stage draw keep probabilities bunched, underscoring widespread depth and upset potential in qualifiers' aftermath.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSpanien 15.4%
England 12.8%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 11.1%
Argentinien 9.8%
$428,902,913 Vol.
$428,902,913 Vol.
Spanien
15%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
2%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexiko
1%
Kroatien
1%
Schweiz
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Australien
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Iran
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Spanien 15.4%
England 12.8%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 11.1%
Argentinien 9.8%
$428,902,913 Vol.
$428,902,913 Vol.
Spanien
15%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
2%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexiko
1%
Kroatien
1%
Schweiz
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Australien
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Iran
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim 15.4% implied probability edge as trader consensus favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner, bolstered by their reigning UEFA European Championship title and a commanding 3-0 friendly victory over Serbia on March 27, where Mikel Oyarzabal netted a brace. The race remains tightly contested among top contenders—England at 12.8%, France at 11.1%, Argentina at 9.8%, and Brazil at 8.6%—following mixed March international results: France's resilient 2-1 win over Brazil despite a red card, England's 1-1 draw with Uruguay, and Argentina's narrow 2-1 defeat of Mauritania. With UEFA playoffs semifinals complete and finals pending March 31, the expanded 48-team field, star-laden squads featuring Mbappé and Messi, and balanced group stage draw keep probabilities bunched, underscoring widespread depth and upset potential in qualifiers' aftermath.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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