Spain holds a narrow lead in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their Euro 2024 title and dominant 3-0 friendly victory over Serbia last week, showcasing depth with goals from Oyarzabal and Munoz amid a youthful squad featuring Yamal and Pedri. France (11.2%) gained ground after a resilient 2-1 upset of Brazil—Mbappé and Ekitiké scoring despite a late red card—propelling them past Argentina to second in FIFA rankings, while England's 1-1 draw with Uruguay and Brazil's defeat highlight vulnerabilities. The expanded 48-team field, balanced groups separating powerhouses like these until knockouts, and transitions post-Messi era keep the top cluster (9-16%) fiercely contested, reflecting no dominant force ahead of June kickoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSpanien 15.8%
England 12.8%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 11.2%
Argentinien 9.8%
$429,752,470 Vol.
$429,752,470 Vol.
Spanien
16%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
2%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexiko
1%
Kroatien
1%
Schweiz
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Australien
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Iran
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Spanien 15.8%
England 12.8%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 11.2%
Argentinien 9.8%
$429,752,470 Vol.
$429,752,470 Vol.
Spanien
16%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
2%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexiko
1%
Kroatien
1%
Schweiz
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Australien
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Iran
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a narrow lead in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their Euro 2024 title and dominant 3-0 friendly victory over Serbia last week, showcasing depth with goals from Oyarzabal and Munoz amid a youthful squad featuring Yamal and Pedri. France (11.2%) gained ground after a resilient 2-1 upset of Brazil—Mbappé and Ekitiké scoring despite a late red card—propelling them past Argentina to second in FIFA rankings, while England's 1-1 draw with Uruguay and Brazil's defeat highlight vulnerabilities. The expanded 48-team field, balanced groups separating powerhouses like these until knockouts, and transitions post-Messi era keep the top cluster (9-16%) fiercely contested, reflecting no dominant force ahead of June kickoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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