**Peggy Flanagan holds an 87.5% implied probability in the Minnesota Senate race against Michele Tafoya at 13.5%, reflecting trader consensus on the state's Democratic lean and her advantages as lieutenant governor in an open-seat contest.** The seat opened after Sen. Tina Smith's retirement, with Flanagan securing the Democratic nomination in the August 2026 primary over Rep. Angie Craig. Tafoya won the Republican primary. Recent polling through early October shows Flanagan leading by margins of 1–4 points in most surveys, including Rasmussen (48–45) and others averaging roughly D+3 to D+5, though some September results placed the race near a statistical tie. Minnesota's recent presidential results and long Democratic Senate streak underpin the market positioning, with traders assigning limited odds to an upset despite Tafoya's competitiveness among certain demographics and independents. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.