Diplomatic efforts to sustain the US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 and mediated by Pakistan, center on unresolved demands over Iran’s nuclear program and navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent exchanges of fire between US forces and Iranian vessels have tested the truce without triggering its formal collapse, while President Trump described the arrangement as on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal in mid-May. Both sides continue to affirm the ceasefire’s ongoing status amid stalled talks, with Iran reviewing interim US offers for a potential 60-day extension that could lead to broader negotiations. Upcoming diplomatic signals from mediators and any further incidents in the Persian Gulf remain key variables that could shift the trajectory before scheduled deadlines.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডনতুন
$147,718 Vol.
May 20
97%
May 21
90%
May 22
79%
May 24
67%
May 27
61%
May 31
51%
June 7
40%
June 15
37%
June 30
34%
July 31
30%
December 31
24%
$147,718 Vol.
May 20
$37,725 Vol.
97%
May 21
$40,283 Vol.
90%
May 22
$19,510 Vol.
79%
May 24
$13,507 Vol.
67%
May 27
$11,972 Vol.
61%
May 31
$5,432 Vol.
51%
June 7
$3,445 Vol.
40%
June 15
$3,703 Vol.
37%
June 30
$1,876 Vol.
34%
July 31
$6,156 Vol.
30%
December 31
$6,879 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to sustain the US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 and mediated by Pakistan, center on unresolved demands over Iran’s nuclear program and navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent exchanges of fire between US forces and Iranian vessels have tested the truce without triggering its formal collapse, while President Trump described the arrangement as on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal in mid-May. Both sides continue to affirm the ceasefire’s ongoing status amid stalled talks, with Iran reviewing interim US offers for a potential 60-day extension that could lead to broader negotiations. Upcoming diplomatic signals from mediators and any further incidents in the Persian Gulf remain key variables that could shift the trajectory before scheduled deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
ভলিউম
$147,718মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to sustain the US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 and mediated by Pakistan, center on unresolved demands over Iran’s nuclear program and navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent exchanges of fire between US forces and Iranian vessels have tested the truce without triggering its formal collapse, while President Trump described the arrangement as on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal in mid-May. Both sides continue to affirm the ceasefire’s ongoing status amid stalled talks, with Iran reviewing interim US offers for a potential 60-day extension that could lead to broader negotiations. Upcoming diplomatic signals from mediators and any further incidents in the Persian Gulf remain key variables that could shift the trajectory before scheduled deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$147,718মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic efforts to sustain the US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 and mediated by Pakistan, center on unresolved demands over Iran’s nuclear program and navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent exchanges of fire between US forces and Iranian vessels have tested the truce without triggering its formal collapse, while President Trump described the arrangement as on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal in mid-May. Both sides continue to affirm the ceasefire’s ongoing status amid stalled talks, with Iran reviewing interim US offers for a potential 60-day extension that could lead to broader negotiations. Upcoming diplomatic signals from mediators and any further incidents in the Persian Gulf remain key variables that could shift the trajectory before scheduled deadlines.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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