Preliminary observational data through late April 2026, drawn from datasets like Berkeley Earth daily trackers and Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, show global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly in the 1.15–1.19ºC range above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus at 59% implied probability for this bin. This follows March's fourth-warmest anomaly on record at 1.48ºC (Copernicus), fueled by near-record sea surface temperatures reaching new daily highs mid-month and persistent ocean heat content despite ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA and WMO seasonal forecasts reinforce above-normal temperatures for April-June, with a likely El Niño transition by May-July boosting late-period warmth; historical April precedents amid accelerating baseline warming (now ~1.3ºC total per Berkeley Earth) make cooler outcomes like <1.10ºC (3.4%) improbable. Final bulletins expected early May could refine with quality-controlled adjustments.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 59%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 14%
1.25–1.29ºC 6.0%
$177,685 Vol.
$177,685 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
59%
1.20–1.24ºC
14%
1.25–1.29ºC
6%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 59%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 14%
1.25–1.29ºC 6.0%
$177,685 Vol.
$177,685 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$35,832 Vol.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$33,156 Vol.
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
$24,122 Vol.
59%
1.20–1.24ºC
$28,076 Vol.
14%
1.25–1.29ºC
$35,001 Vol.
6%
>1.29ºC
$21,498 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary observational data through late April 2026, drawn from datasets like Berkeley Earth daily trackers and Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, show global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly in the 1.15–1.19ºC range above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus at 59% implied probability for this bin. This follows March's fourth-warmest anomaly on record at 1.48ºC (Copernicus), fueled by near-record sea surface temperatures reaching new daily highs mid-month and persistent ocean heat content despite ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA and WMO seasonal forecasts reinforce above-normal temperatures for April-June, with a likely El Niño transition by May-July boosting late-period warmth; historical April precedents amid accelerating baseline warming (now ~1.3ºC total per Berkeley Earth) make cooler outcomes like <1.10ºC (3.4%) improbable. Final bulletins expected early May could refine with quality-controlled adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
ভলিউম
$177,685শেষ তারিখ
May 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary observational data through late April 2026, drawn from datasets like Berkeley Earth daily trackers and Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, show global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly in the 1.15–1.19ºC range above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus at 59% implied probability for this bin. This follows March's fourth-warmest anomaly on record at 1.48ºC (Copernicus), fueled by near-record sea surface temperatures reaching new daily highs mid-month and persistent ocean heat content despite ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA and WMO seasonal forecasts reinforce above-normal temperatures for April-June, with a likely El Niño transition by May-July boosting late-period warmth; historical April precedents amid accelerating baseline warming (now ~1.3ºC total per Berkeley Earth) make cooler outcomes like <1.10ºC (3.4%) improbable. Final bulletins expected early May could refine with quality-controlled adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$177,685শেষ তারিখ
May 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary observational data through late April 2026, drawn from datasets like Berkeley Earth daily trackers and Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis, show global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly in the 1.15–1.19ºC range above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus at 59% implied probability for this bin. This follows March's fourth-warmest anomaly on record at 1.48ºC (Copernicus), fueled by near-record sea surface temperatures reaching new daily highs mid-month and persistent ocean heat content despite ENSO-neutral conditions. NOAA and WMO seasonal forecasts reinforce above-normal temperatures for April-June, with a likely El Niño transition by May-July boosting late-period warmth; historical April precedents amid accelerating baseline warming (now ~1.3ºC total per Berkeley Earth) make cooler outcomes like <1.10ºC (3.4%) improbable. Final bulletins expected early May could refine with quality-controlled adjustments.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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