**Intense early-July heat across North America drove global daily mean surface air temperatures to record levels on one of July 1–3, 2026.** Widespread heat domes produced all-time daily highs from the eastern U.S. to the Plains, with multiple cities exceeding 100–106 °F (38–41 °C) on July 2 and contributing to an exceptional spike in the ERA5 global average. Official reanalysis products from Copernicus and related agencies place one of those three days at the top of the historical daily series, exceeding prior peaks such as July 2024. This outcome aligns with the strong 100 % market-implied probability for “1st hottest.” Realistic challenges remain limited but include final post-processing revisions to the reanalysis dataset or measurement uncertainties in sparsely observed regions that could shift the precise daily ranking by small margins. No subsequent July 2026 days have approached the same global mean, reinforcing the current consensus.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 100.0%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$181,149 Vol.
$181,149 Vol.
1st hottest
Yes
2nd hottest
No
3rd hottest
No
4th or lower
No
1st hottest 100.0%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$181,149 Vol.
$181,149 Vol.
1st hottest
Yes
2nd hottest
No
3rd hottest
No
4th or lower
No
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
রেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: Yes
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: Yes
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
রেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: Yes
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: Yes
**Intense early-July heat across North America drove global daily mean surface air temperatures to record levels on one of July 1–3, 2026.** Widespread heat domes produced all-time daily highs from the eastern U.S. to the Plains, with multiple cities exceeding 100–106 °F (38–41 °C) on July 2 and contributing to an exceptional spike in the ERA5 global average. Official reanalysis products from Copernicus and related agencies place one of those three days at the top of the historical daily series, exceeding prior peaks such as July 2024. This outcome aligns with the strong 100 % market-implied probability for “1st hottest.” Realistic challenges remain limited but include final post-processing revisions to the reanalysis dataset or measurement uncertainties in sparsely observed regions that could shift the precise daily ranking by small margins. No subsequent July 2026 days have approached the same global mean, reinforcing the current consensus.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা