Name: Kai and iShowSpeed beat Super Mario Bros by noon Thursday?
Start: 2025-06-25T18:40:35.465183Z
End: 2025-06-26T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Speed/Kai win their “Super Mario Bros.” challenge by 12:00 PM ET on June 26, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the stream on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2F7LwtY43PE.

If the challenge is cancelled or abandoned before completion, this market will resolve to "No".

Kai and iShowSpeed beat Super Mario Bros by noon Thursday?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if xQc breaks Forsen's In-Game-Time of 15:28:130 in a Minecraft speedrun during a live stream by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve to “No” as soon as it becomes impossible for xQc to complete a qualifying speedrun within this market’s timeframe.

For the purpose of this market, “Minecraft speedrun” refers to a playthrough of Minecraft Java Edition version 1.16.1, using a random seed, starting from world creation and ending when the Ender Dragon is defeated.

For the purpose of this market, “Stream” refers to a live video broadcast hosted by xQc or where xQc is present. Prerecorded videos, videos not intended for public release, or other non-live content will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be xQc's Twitch channel (https://www.twitch.tv/xqc); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

xQc会在1月31日前打破Forsen的Minecraft速通纪录吗？

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship, currently scheduled for October 13, 2025, to February 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the listed player is eliminated from the championship under the tournament's official rules, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chess.com, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used in case of discrepancies.

If the winner is not announced by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

马格努斯·卡尔森会赢得2025–2026快棋锦标赛吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”


threadguy在3月31日前的影响力达到历史新高吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is played first by any performer during the Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify as "played" a performer must sing at least some of the lyrics of a specified song during this event.

If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LX halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

“LA MUDANZA”会在超级碗中场秀上首先演出吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Luigi Mangione在2027年之前尝试过吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of views any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first day after being posted is greater than or equal to 50 million by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.


截至3月31日，MrBeast的视频在第一天获得了5000万次观看吗？

This market will resolve according to the exact outcome of Super Bowl LX. 

If Super Bowl LX has not been completed by February 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". 

If at any point it becomes impossible for this exact outcome to occur in Super Bowl LX based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. one team is eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL.

西雅图会在第60届超级碗战胜新英格兰吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is played by any performer during the Super Bowl LX halftime show currently scheduled for February 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify as "played" a performer must sing at least some of the lyrics of a specified song during this event.

If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LIX halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

BAILE INOLVIDABLE 会在超级碗中场秀上表演吗？

This is a polymarket to predict which state the team that wins the 2025-26 NFL Super Bowl will be from.

If a team who plays in the listed state wins the Super Bowl, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the Super Bowl is canceled or not completed by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the NFL. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2025-26超级碗获胜的球队会来自其他州吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Up Only 播客将在2026年2月28日之前发布吗？

This market will resolve according to the teams that advance to Super Bowl LX. 

If the Super Bowl LX matchup has not been confirmed by February 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". 

An announcement of Super Bowl LX matchup before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this matchup to occur in Super Bowl LX based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. one team is eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL.

新英格兰会在第60届超级碗对阵西雅图吗？

This polymarket will resolve to the team that wins the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament.

The market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed pair wins the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this pair to win the tournament per the official rules of the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament

The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe, maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The closer the clock is set to midnight, the closer the scientists believe the world is to global disaster.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Doomsday Clock is moved by ten seconds or more in either direction (i.e. closer than 80 seconds to midnight, or farther than 98 seconds to midnight, see https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/#nav_menu) during the yearly meeting of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists scheduled for January 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Doomsday Clock setting is delayed this market's resolution may be delayed until the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' 2025 release is published. If no release is published by June 30, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be information released by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

末日时钟会前进十秒或以上吗？

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

密歇根会赢得2026年NCAA锦标赛吗？

An interview of Donald Trump by Joe Kernen is scheduled to air on January 21, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/CNBC/status/2012167755407999076

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or CNBC, or otherwise is not released by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during CNBC interview?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.

The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. 

最高法院会在2026年12月31日前受理体育赛事合同案吗？

X announced a $1 Million grand prize for its One Million Dollar Article contest (see: https://x.com/XCreators/status/2012306731867717852). The prize will go to the top article for the period of January 16 - January 28, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Dan Koe (@thedankoe) is officially confirmed to have won this $1 Million prize by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements from Dan Koe that he has won the prize will not alone be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.

Dan Koe winning any additional or sub-prize other than the announced $1 million dollar prize will not count.

If it is confirmed that another X user is the winner of this prize, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no winner is officially confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from official X sources, including from @Xcreators, other X team accounts, or Elon Musk; however, a consensus of credible information on the winner of this prize may also be used.

Note: The terms of this prize may be seen at https://legal.x.com/en/articles-promotion-terms

Will Dan Koe win the X $1M article prize?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

xAI会在6月30日前拥有全球第一的AI模型吗？

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of EA currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

EA会在财报电话会议中说“贾里德”或“库什纳”吗？

On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

以色列与哈马斯的停火将在6月30日之前取消吗？

An interview of Donald Trump by Katie Pavlich on "Katie Pavlich Tonight" is scheduled to air on January 20, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/NewsNation/status/2012890752905363662

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or NewsNation, or otherwise is not released by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during NewsNation interview?

Donald Trump is set to deliver remarks in Iowa on on January 27, 2026 (see: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/21/donald-trump-iowa-for-speech-economy/88280760007/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the event on January 27, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

This market is explicitly about the speech in Iowa (https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/21/donald-trump-iowa-for-speech-economy/88280760007/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Greenland" during Iowa speech?

This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament.

If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules.

If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

斯科蒂·舍夫勒会赢得2026年大师赛吗？

The All-In Podcast is scheduled to release episodes every Friday. (https://allin.com/episodes)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the All-In Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

Only All-Podcast episodes posted on (https://allin.com/episodes) will count for this market. Other episodes or specials posted on the youtube channel will not count.

If no such episode of the All-In Podcast is aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. 

This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.

In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

梅赛德斯会成为2026年F1车队冠军吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI宣布在2027年前已实现AGI？

This market will resolve to the contestant or group who wins Sanremo 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Sanremo 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official Sanremo rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Sanremo (https://sanremofestival.info/), including live footage of Sanremo 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Fedez 和 Marco Masini 会赢得 2026 年圣雷莫音乐节吗？

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Kai and iShowSpeed beat Super Mario Bros by noon Thursday?

市场背景

Kai and iShowSpeed beat Super Mario Bros by noon Thursday?

规则

Kai and iShowSpeed beat Super Mario Bros by noon Thursday?

市场背景

Kai and iShowSpeed beat Super Mario Bros by noon Thursday?

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