Market icon

乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？

Market icon

乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？

是

11% 概率
Polymarket
最新

是

11% 概率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 88.5% implied probability for George R.R. Martin announcing The Winds of Winter in 2026, driven by his prolonged silence on progress amid a 15-year delay since A Dance with Dragons. In a January 15 Hollywood Reporter interview, Martin candidly addressed the book's stagnation, admitting he's far behind schedule and considering alternatives like co-writers, but offered no timeline or completion hints, echoing fan frustrations over minimal advancement since 2022. Recent Not A Blog entries through February focus on TV adaptations like A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms and stage projects, sidelining ASOIAF writing updates. With no sample chapters or teases in Q1 2026, traders see scant momentum for an announcement, though a surprise blog post could spark an upset before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$9,573
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 88.5% implied probability for George R.R. Martin announcing The Winds of Winter in 2026, driven by his prolonged silence on progress amid a 15-year delay since A Dance with Dragons. In a January 15 Hollywood Reporter interview, Martin candidly addressed the book's stagnation, admitting he's far behind schedule and considering alternatives like co-writers, but offered no timeline or completion hints, echoing fan frustrations over minimal advancement since 2022. Recent Not A Blog entries through February focus on TV adaptations like A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms and stage projects, sidelining ASOIAF writing updates. With no sample chapters or teases in Q1 2026, traders see scant momentum for an announcement, though a surprise blog post could spark an upset before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$9,573
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"乔治·R·R·马丁会在2026年宣布《凛冬的寒风》吗？"，概率为 11%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 11¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 11%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Jan 16, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"乔治· R · R ·马丁（ George R. R. Martin ）是否会在2026年宣布“冬天的风” ？"的当前领先者是"乔治·R·R·马丁会在2026年宣布《凛冬的寒风》吗？"，概率为 11%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 11%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

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