Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro's commanding 88% victory in the March 3 Texas Democratic primary solidified his nomination in the safely Democratic TX-20, a San Antonio-based district with a D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index where he has won general elections by 64–100% since 2020. Republican nominee Edgardo Baez advanced unopposed amid low primary turnout of just 9,000 votes, signaling weak GOP enthusiasm and fundraising in this reliably blue seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects these structural advantages and historical dominance, though a major Castro scandal, health event, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$0 交易量
92%
共和党
$0 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro's commanding 88% victory in the March 3 Texas Democratic primary solidified his nomination in the safely Democratic TX-20, a San Antonio-based district with a D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index where he has won general elections by 64–100% since 2020. Republican nominee Edgardo Baez advanced unopposed amid low primary turnout of just 9,000 votes, signaling weak GOP enthusiasm and fundraising in this reliably blue seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects these structural advantages and historical dominance, though a major Castro scandal, health event, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro's commanding 88% victory in the March 3 Texas Democratic primary solidified his nomination in the safely Democratic TX-20, a San Antonio-based district with a D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index where he has won general elections by 64–100% since 2020. Republican nominee Edgardo Baez advanced unopposed amid low primary turnout of just 9,000 votes, signaling weak GOP enthusiasm and fundraising in this reliably blue seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects these structural advantages and historical dominance, though a major Castro scandal, health event, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro's commanding 88% victory in the March 3 Texas Democratic primary solidified his nomination in the safely Democratic TX-20, a San Antonio-based district with a D+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index where he has won general elections by 64–100% since 2020. Republican nominee Edgardo Baez advanced unopposed amid low primary turnout of just 9,000 votes, signaling weak GOP enthusiasm and fundraising in this reliably blue seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects these structural advantages and historical dominance, though a major Castro scandal, health event, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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