Texas' 19th Congressional District's R+25 partisan voting index and history of Republican general election margins exceeding 75% underpin trader consensus pricing a Republican win at 93%, reflecting the district's entrenched GOP dominance in West Texas despite incumbent Jodey Arrington's November 2025 retirement announcement. The March 3 primaries—one month ago—advanced well-funded Republicans Tom Sell (40% in primary) and Abraham Enriquez to a May 26 runoff, while Democrat Kyle Rable secured the nomination unopposed amid minimal fundraising of $16,000. No general election polls exist, but ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. Scenarios challenging this include a post-runoff GOP nominee scandal, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national midterm wave, though structural barriers render these improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$1,699 交易量
93%
民主党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas' 19th Congressional District's R+25 partisan voting index and history of Republican general election margins exceeding 75% underpin trader consensus pricing a Republican win at 93%, reflecting the district's entrenched GOP dominance in West Texas despite incumbent Jodey Arrington's November 2025 retirement announcement. The March 3 primaries—one month ago—advanced well-funded Republicans Tom Sell (40% in primary) and Abraham Enriquez to a May 26 runoff, while Democrat Kyle Rable secured the nomination unopposed amid minimal fundraising of $16,000. No general election polls exist, but ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. Scenarios challenging this include a post-runoff GOP nominee scandal, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national midterm wave, though structural barriers render these improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$1,699结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas' 19th Congressional District's R+25 partisan voting index and history of Republican general election margins exceeding 75% underpin trader consensus pricing a Republican win at 93%, reflecting the district's entrenched GOP dominance in West Texas despite incumbent Jodey Arrington's November 2025 retirement announcement. The March 3 primaries—one month ago—advanced well-funded Republicans Tom Sell (40% in primary) and Abraham Enriquez to a May 26 runoff, while Democrat Kyle Rable secured the nomination unopposed amid minimal fundraising of $16,000. No general election polls exist, but ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. Scenarios challenging this include a post-runoff GOP nominee scandal, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national midterm wave, though structural barriers render these improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,699结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas' 19th Congressional District's R+25 partisan voting index and history of Republican general election margins exceeding 75% underpin trader consensus pricing a Republican win at 93%, reflecting the district's entrenched GOP dominance in West Texas despite incumbent Jodey Arrington's November 2025 retirement announcement. The March 3 primaries—one month ago—advanced well-funded Republicans Tom Sell (40% in primary) and Abraham Enriquez to a May 26 runoff, while Democrat Kyle Rable secured the nomination unopposed amid minimal fundraising of $16,000. No general election polls exist, but ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. Scenarios challenging this include a post-runoff GOP nominee scandal, unprecedented Democratic turnout surge, or national midterm wave, though structural barriers render these improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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