Incumbent Rep. Jodey Arrington's retirement opened Texas' 19th Congressional District, but its R+25 partisan voting index and history of 74-81% Republican general election margins sustain trader consensus at 93% for a GOP hold. The March 3 Republican primary saw businessman Tom Sell lead at 40% and Abraham Enriquez at 19%, advancing both to the May 26 runoff, where the winner—bolstered by Sell's $1.2 million fundraising haul—faces Democratic nominee Kyle Rable, who ran uncontested with minimal $16,000 raised and low primary turnout. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore the West Texas seat's entrenched conservative base, with Trump carrying 72-75% locally in recent cycles. A GOP scandal post-runoff, national Democratic wave, or turnout surge could challenge this, though barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$1,699 交易量
93%
民主党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jodey Arrington's retirement opened Texas' 19th Congressional District, but its R+25 partisan voting index and history of 74-81% Republican general election margins sustain trader consensus at 93% for a GOP hold. The March 3 Republican primary saw businessman Tom Sell lead at 40% and Abraham Enriquez at 19%, advancing both to the May 26 runoff, where the winner—bolstered by Sell's $1.2 million fundraising haul—faces Democratic nominee Kyle Rable, who ran uncontested with minimal $16,000 raised and low primary turnout. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore the West Texas seat's entrenched conservative base, with Trump carrying 72-75% locally in recent cycles. A GOP scandal post-runoff, national Democratic wave, or turnout surge could challenge this, though barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$1,699结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jodey Arrington's retirement opened Texas' 19th Congressional District, but its R+25 partisan voting index and history of 74-81% Republican general election margins sustain trader consensus at 93% for a GOP hold. The March 3 Republican primary saw businessman Tom Sell lead at 40% and Abraham Enriquez at 19%, advancing both to the May 26 runoff, where the winner—bolstered by Sell's $1.2 million fundraising haul—faces Democratic nominee Kyle Rable, who ran uncontested with minimal $16,000 raised and low primary turnout. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore the West Texas seat's entrenched conservative base, with Trump carrying 72-75% locally in recent cycles. A GOP scandal post-runoff, national Democratic wave, or turnout surge could challenge this, though barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,699结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jodey Arrington's retirement opened Texas' 19th Congressional District, but its R+25 partisan voting index and history of 74-81% Republican general election margins sustain trader consensus at 93% for a GOP hold. The March 3 Republican primary saw businessman Tom Sell lead at 40% and Abraham Enriquez at 19%, advancing both to the May 26 runoff, where the winner—bolstered by Sell's $1.2 million fundraising haul—faces Democratic nominee Kyle Rable, who ran uncontested with minimal $16,000 raised and low primary turnout. Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others underscore the West Texas seat's entrenched conservative base, with Trump carrying 72-75% locally in recent cycles. A GOP scandal post-runoff, national Democratic wave, or turnout surge could challenge this, though barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题