Following the Texas Legislature's mid-decade redistricting, which shifted TX-09 from a solidly Democratic district held by Rep. Al Green—now running in TX-18—to a solidly Republican seat per Cook Political Report ratings, trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 66%. March 3 primary results solidified this: environmental advocate Leticia Gutierrez secured the Democratic nomination outright with 53.7%, lacking Al Green's incumbency edge, while strong GOP contenders Army veteran Alex Mealer and state Rep. Briscoe Cain advanced to a May runoff. Absent general election polls, the redrawn map's Republican lean and nominee quality drive the implied probabilities, with the GOP runoff winner facing a clearer path to victory in November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
66%
民主党
32%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$380 交易量
66%
民主党
$0 交易量
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following the Texas Legislature's mid-decade redistricting, which shifted TX-09 from a solidly Democratic district held by Rep. Al Green—now running in TX-18—to a solidly Republican seat per Cook Political Report ratings, trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 66%. March 3 primary results solidified this: environmental advocate Leticia Gutierrez secured the Democratic nomination outright with 53.7%, lacking Al Green's incumbency edge, while strong GOP contenders Army veteran Alex Mealer and state Rep. Briscoe Cain advanced to a May runoff. Absent general election polls, the redrawn map's Republican lean and nominee quality drive the implied probabilities, with the GOP runoff winner facing a clearer path to victory in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ET
交易量
$380结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following the Texas Legislature's mid-decade redistricting, which shifted TX-09 from a solidly Democratic district held by Rep. Al Green—now running in TX-18—to a solidly Republican seat per Cook Political Report ratings, trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 66%. March 3 primary results solidified this: environmental advocate Leticia Gutierrez secured the Democratic nomination outright with 53.7%, lacking Al Green's incumbency edge, while strong GOP contenders Army veteran Alex Mealer and state Rep. Briscoe Cain advanced to a May runoff. Absent general election polls, the redrawn map's Republican lean and nominee quality drive the implied probabilities, with the GOP runoff winner facing a clearer path to victory in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$380结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following the Texas Legislature's mid-decade redistricting, which shifted TX-09 from a solidly Democratic district held by Rep. Al Green—now running in TX-18—to a solidly Republican seat per Cook Political Report ratings, trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 66%. March 3 primary results solidified this: environmental advocate Leticia Gutierrez secured the Democratic nomination outright with 53.7%, lacking Al Green's incumbency edge, while strong GOP contenders Army veteran Alex Mealer and state Rep. Briscoe Cain advanced to a May runoff. Absent general election polls, the redrawn map's Republican lean and nominee quality drive the implied probabilities, with the GOP runoff winner facing a clearer path to victory in November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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