Redistricting has repositioned Texas’s 9th congressional district eastward across Houston suburbs and exurban areas, creating a Republican-leaning seat where Donald Trump posted double-digit margins in recent cycles and the partisan voting index sits near R+9. The open-seat contest features Democratic nominee Leticia Gutierrez, who captured her party’s primary outright, against the winner of the May 26 Republican runoff between Alex Mealer and Briscoe Cain. With no incumbent and the district’s electoral math favoring the GOP, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 72% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, while the Democratic Party sits at 39%. The upcoming runoff outcome and any late-cycle shifts in turnout or national conditions remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
74%
民主党
32%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$2,106 交易量
74%
民主党
$2,096 交易量
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has repositioned Texas’s 9th congressional district eastward across Houston suburbs and exurban areas, creating a Republican-leaning seat where Donald Trump posted double-digit margins in recent cycles and the partisan voting index sits near R+9. The open-seat contest features Democratic nominee Leticia Gutierrez, who captured her party’s primary outright, against the winner of the May 26 Republican runoff between Alex Mealer and Briscoe Cain. With no incumbent and the district’s electoral math favoring the GOP, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 72% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, while the Democratic Party sits at 39%. The upcoming runoff outcome and any late-cycle shifts in turnout or national conditions remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ET
交易量
$4,202结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has repositioned Texas’s 9th congressional district eastward across Houston suburbs and exurban areas, creating a Republican-leaning seat where Donald Trump posted double-digit margins in recent cycles and the partisan voting index sits near R+9. The open-seat contest features Democratic nominee Leticia Gutierrez, who captured her party’s primary outright, against the winner of the May 26 Republican runoff between Alex Mealer and Briscoe Cain. With no incumbent and the district’s electoral math favoring the GOP, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 72% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, while the Democratic Party sits at 39%. The upcoming runoff outcome and any late-cycle shifts in turnout or national conditions remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$4,202结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting has repositioned Texas’s 9th congressional district eastward across Houston suburbs and exurban areas, creating a Republican-leaning seat where Donald Trump posted double-digit margins in recent cycles and the partisan voting index sits near R+9. The open-seat contest features Democratic nominee Leticia Gutierrez, who captured her party’s primary outright, against the winner of the May 26 Republican runoff between Alex Mealer and Briscoe Cain. With no incumbent and the district’s electoral math favoring the GOP, trader consensus assigns the Republican Party a 72% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, while the Democratic Party sits at 39%. The upcoming runoff outcome and any late-cycle shifts in turnout or national conditions remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题