Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan advantage, reflected in its R+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 68% share of the 2024 general election vote. Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination by defeating a primary challenger with roughly 81% of the vote on March 3, 2026, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced narrowly from his party's primary. The district's redrawn boundaries, stretching from suburban Dallas areas to the Arkansas border, continue to limit Democratic competitiveness. With the November 3, 2026 general election still months away and no major intervening developments, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 85.5% implied probability of victory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
86%
民主党
15%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$1,664 交易量
86%
民主党
$1,842 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan advantage, reflected in its R+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 68% share of the 2024 general election vote. Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination by defeating a primary challenger with roughly 81% of the vote on March 3, 2026, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced narrowly from his party's primary. The district's redrawn boundaries, stretching from suburban Dallas areas to the Arkansas border, continue to limit Democratic competitiveness. With the November 3, 2026 general election still months away and no major intervening developments, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 85.5% implied probability of victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$3,506结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan advantage, reflected in its R+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 68% share of the 2024 general election vote. Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination by defeating a primary challenger with roughly 81% of the vote on March 3, 2026, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced narrowly from his party's primary. The district's redrawn boundaries, stretching from suburban Dallas areas to the Arkansas border, continue to limit Democratic competitiveness. With the November 3, 2026 general election still months away and no major intervening developments, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 85.5% implied probability of victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$3,506结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan advantage, reflected in its R+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index and the incumbent's 68% share of the 2024 general election vote. Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination by defeating a primary challenger with roughly 81% of the vote on March 3, 2026, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced narrowly from his party's primary. The district's redrawn boundaries, stretching from suburban Dallas areas to the Arkansas border, continue to limit Democratic competitiveness. With the November 3, 2026 general election still months away and no major intervening developments, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 85.5% implied probability of victory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题