Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for the Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with implied probabilities tightly matched at 44.5% for $33,000–$36,000 and 44.0% for $26,500–$28,500, following the index's 7.1% Q1 decline to around 23,400 amid a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. March's sharp correction stemmed from the Fed's March decision to hold fed funds rates steady, pricing out near-term cuts and even a 10% hike probability for April, exacerbating valuation pressures on high-growth tech constituents amid stubbornly elevated Treasury yields. Key differentiators include impending Q1 earnings from AI leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft—expected +23.7% sector growth—potentially fueling a rebound above 33,000, versus persistent monetary tightening anchoring nearer 27,000; the April 28–29 FOMC meeting looms as the swing catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于33,000-36,000美元 89%
26,500-28,500美元 88%
30,500-33,000美元 87%
23,500-25,000美元 77%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
低于$23,500
30%
23,500-25,000美元
77%
25,000-26,500美元
77%
26,500-28,500美元
88%
28,500-30,500美元
-
30,500-33,000美元
87%
33,000-36,000美元
89%
>36,000
43%
33,000-36,000美元 89%
26,500-28,500美元 88%
30,500-33,000美元 87%
23,500-25,000美元 77%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
低于$23,500
$0 交易量
30%
23,500-25,000美元
$0 交易量
77%
25,000-26,500美元
$0 交易量
77%
26,500-28,500美元
$0 交易量
88%
28,500-30,500美元
$0 交易量
-
30,500-33,000美元
$0 交易量
87%
33,000-36,000美元
$0 交易量
89%
>36,000
$0 交易量
43%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for the Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with implied probabilities tightly matched at 44.5% for $33,000–$36,000 and 44.0% for $26,500–$28,500, following the index's 7.1% Q1 decline to around 23,400 amid a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. March's sharp correction stemmed from the Fed's March decision to hold fed funds rates steady, pricing out near-term cuts and even a 10% hike probability for April, exacerbating valuation pressures on high-growth tech constituents amid stubbornly elevated Treasury yields. Key differentiators include impending Q1 earnings from AI leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft—expected +23.7% sector growth—potentially fueling a rebound above 33,000, versus persistent monetary tightening anchoring nearer 27,000; the April 28–29 FOMC meeting looms as the swing catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for the Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with implied probabilities tightly matched at 44.5% for $33,000–$36,000 and 44.0% for $26,500–$28,500, following the index's 7.1% Q1 decline to around 23,400 amid a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. March's sharp correction stemmed from the Fed's March decision to hold fed funds rates steady, pricing out near-term cuts and even a 10% hike probability for April, exacerbating valuation pressures on high-growth tech constituents amid stubbornly elevated Treasury yields. Key differentiators include impending Q1 earnings from AI leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft—expected +23.7% sector growth—potentially fueling a rebound above 33,000, versus persistent monetary tightening anchoring nearer 27,000; the April 28–29 FOMC meeting looms as the swing catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for the Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with implied probabilities tightly matched at 44.5% for $33,000–$36,000 and 44.0% for $26,500–$28,500, following the index's 7.1% Q1 decline to around 23,400 amid a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. March's sharp correction stemmed from the Fed's March decision to hold fed funds rates steady, pricing out near-term cuts and even a 10% hike probability for April, exacerbating valuation pressures on high-growth tech constituents amid stubbornly elevated Treasury yields. Key differentiators include impending Q1 earnings from AI leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft—expected +23.7% sector growth—potentially fueling a rebound above 33,000, versus persistent monetary tightening anchoring nearer 27,000; the April 28–29 FOMC meeting looms as the swing catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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