Missouri's 5th Congressional District race pits long-serving Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver against Republican challenger Rodney Bell, with trader consensus implying a 46.5% chance for Democrats to retain the seat versus 30% for Republicans, reflecting close polling averages showing Cleaver ahead by 5-10 points. Cleaver's strong showing in their October 10 debate solidified his incumbency edge in the Kansas City-area district (Cook PVI D+13), countering national Republican House momentum from recent generic ballot shifts. Bell has secured local GOP endorsements and highlighted border security, but trails in fundraising. Early voting is underway, with urban turnout and suburban swings key ahead of November 5 Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
45%
共和党
31%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
45%
共和党
$0 交易量
31%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 5th Congressional District race pits long-serving Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver against Republican challenger Rodney Bell, with trader consensus implying a 46.5% chance for Democrats to retain the seat versus 30% for Republicans, reflecting close polling averages showing Cleaver ahead by 5-10 points. Cleaver's strong showing in their October 10 debate solidified his incumbency edge in the Kansas City-area district (Cook PVI D+13), countering national Republican House momentum from recent generic ballot shifts. Bell has secured local GOP endorsements and highlighted border security, but trails in fundraising. Early voting is underway, with urban turnout and suburban swings key ahead of November 5 Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 5th Congressional District race pits long-serving Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver against Republican challenger Rodney Bell, with trader consensus implying a 46.5% chance for Democrats to retain the seat versus 30% for Republicans, reflecting close polling averages showing Cleaver ahead by 5-10 points. Cleaver's strong showing in their October 10 debate solidified his incumbency edge in the Kansas City-area district (Cook PVI D+13), countering national Republican House momentum from recent generic ballot shifts. Bell has secured local GOP endorsements and highlighted border security, but trails in fundraising. Early voting is underway, with urban turnout and suburban swings key ahead of November 5 Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 5th Congressional District race pits long-serving Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver against Republican challenger Rodney Bell, with trader consensus implying a 46.5% chance for Democrats to retain the seat versus 30% for Republicans, reflecting close polling averages showing Cleaver ahead by 5-10 points. Cleaver's strong showing in their October 10 debate solidified his incumbency edge in the Kansas City-area district (Cook PVI D+13), countering national Republican House momentum from recent generic ballot shifts. Bell has secured local GOP endorsements and highlighted border security, but trails in fundraising. Early voting is underway, with urban turnout and suburban swings key ahead of November 5 Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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