Redistricting enacted in 2025 and upheld by Missouri courts in March 2026 shifted the partisan balance of the 5th district, reducing its Democratic lean and creating a more competitive landscape for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver has filed to run again despite these changes, while multiple Republicans have entered the August 4 primary. A citizen initiative challenging the maps remains active but faces procedural hurdles ahead of the primaries. These structural adjustments, combined with Missouri’s statewide Republican tilt and historical voting patterns in the Kansas City area, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 63.5 percent over the Democratic Party at 34 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
64%
民主党
34%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$1,729 交易量
64%
民主党
$1,171 交易量
34%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted in 2025 and upheld by Missouri courts in March 2026 shifted the partisan balance of the 5th district, reducing its Democratic lean and creating a more competitive landscape for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver has filed to run again despite these changes, while multiple Republicans have entered the August 4 primary. A citizen initiative challenging the maps remains active but faces procedural hurdles ahead of the primaries. These structural adjustments, combined with Missouri’s statewide Republican tilt and historical voting patterns in the Kansas City area, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 63.5 percent over the Democratic Party at 34 percent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
交易量
$2,901结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted in 2025 and upheld by Missouri courts in March 2026 shifted the partisan balance of the 5th district, reducing its Democratic lean and creating a more competitive landscape for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver has filed to run again despite these changes, while multiple Republicans have entered the August 4 primary. A citizen initiative challenging the maps remains active but faces procedural hurdles ahead of the primaries. These structural adjustments, combined with Missouri’s statewide Republican tilt and historical voting patterns in the Kansas City area, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 63.5 percent over the Democratic Party at 34 percent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,901结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting enacted in 2025 and upheld by Missouri courts in March 2026 shifted the partisan balance of the 5th district, reducing its Democratic lean and creating a more competitive landscape for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver has filed to run again despite these changes, while multiple Republicans have entered the August 4 primary. A citizen initiative challenging the maps remains active but faces procedural hurdles ahead of the primaries. These structural adjustments, combined with Missouri’s statewide Republican tilt and historical voting patterns in the Kansas City area, underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 63.5 percent over the Democratic Party at 34 percent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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