Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, including substantial support for the party's presidential nominee in 2024. Incumbent Mark Alford, first elected in 2022, faces primary challengers in the August 4, 2026 contest but enters as the clear frontrunner with substantial fundraising and name recognition. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing for their party's nomination, yet forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. The redrawn map, upheld by the state supreme court in March, reinforces this positioning. A significant shift in odds would require an unforeseen primary outcome, national political realignment, or turnout surge favoring Democrats in this rural and suburban district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$31,434 交易量
$31,434 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$31,434 交易量
$31,434 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$17,284 交易量
93%
民主党
$14,150 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, including substantial support for the party's presidential nominee in 2024. Incumbent Mark Alford, first elected in 2022, faces primary challengers in the August 4, 2026 contest but enters as the clear frontrunner with substantial fundraising and name recognition. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing for their party's nomination, yet forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. The redrawn map, upheld by the state supreme court in March, reinforces this positioning. A significant shift in odds would require an unforeseen primary outcome, national political realignment, or turnout surge favoring Democrats in this rural and suburban district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$31,434结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, including substantial support for the party's presidential nominee in 2024. Incumbent Mark Alford, first elected in 2022, faces primary challengers in the August 4, 2026 contest but enters as the clear frontrunner with substantial fundraising and name recognition. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing for their party's nomination, yet forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. The redrawn map, upheld by the state supreme court in March, reinforces this positioning. A significant shift in odds would require an unforeseen primary outcome, national political realignment, or turnout surge favoring Democrats in this rural and suburban district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$31,434结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles, including substantial support for the party's presidential nominee in 2024. Incumbent Mark Alford, first elected in 2022, faces primary challengers in the August 4, 2026 contest but enters as the clear frontrunner with substantial fundraising and name recognition. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing for their party's nomination, yet forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. The redrawn map, upheld by the state supreme court in March, reinforces this positioning. A significant shift in odds would require an unforeseen primary outcome, national political realignment, or turnout surge favoring Democrats in this rural and suburban district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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