Missouri's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan forecasters with a Cook PVI of R+24, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for the Republican Party, anchored by incumbent Rep. Mark Alford's decisive 2022 victory margin exceeding 30 points against a low-profile Democratic challenger, Rick Upton. No significant developments—such as polls, endorsements, scandals, or campaign events—have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this entrenched positioning, aligning market odds with historical voting patterns in this rural conservative stronghold. Scenarios that could shift odds include late-breaking legal issues, health events for Alford, or unexpected Democratic turnout surges, though these face steep barriers ahead of the November 5 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
92%
民主党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$7,030 交易量
92%
民主党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan forecasters with a Cook PVI of R+24, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for the Republican Party, anchored by incumbent Rep. Mark Alford's decisive 2022 victory margin exceeding 30 points against a low-profile Democratic challenger, Rick Upton. No significant developments—such as polls, endorsements, scandals, or campaign events—have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this entrenched positioning, aligning market odds with historical voting patterns in this rural conservative stronghold. Scenarios that could shift odds include late-breaking legal issues, health events for Alford, or unexpected Democratic turnout surges, though these face steep barriers ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$7,030结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan forecasters with a Cook PVI of R+24, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for the Republican Party, anchored by incumbent Rep. Mark Alford's decisive 2022 victory margin exceeding 30 points against a low-profile Democratic challenger, Rick Upton. No significant developments—such as polls, endorsements, scandals, or campaign events—have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this entrenched positioning, aligning market odds with historical voting patterns in this rural conservative stronghold. Scenarios that could shift odds include late-breaking legal issues, health events for Alford, or unexpected Democratic turnout surges, though these face steep barriers ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$7,030结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan forecasters with a Cook PVI of R+24, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for the Republican Party, anchored by incumbent Rep. Mark Alford's decisive 2022 victory margin exceeding 30 points against a low-profile Democratic challenger, Rick Upton. No significant developments—such as polls, endorsements, scandals, or campaign events—have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this entrenched positioning, aligning market odds with historical voting patterns in this rural conservative stronghold. Scenarios that could shift odds include late-breaking legal issues, health events for Alford, or unexpected Democratic turnout surges, though these face steep barriers ahead of the November 5 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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