Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party a 77.5 percent implied probability of holding the House seat in November 2026. The district’s R+6 partisan voting index, anchored in suburban St. Louis counties, has consistently supported Republican candidates, most recently delivering incumbent Ann Wagner a 54.5 percent victory in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including Wagner, have filed for the August 4 primary, while Democrats field a competitive primary slate but face structural headwinds. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in 2025, yet independent race raters continue to classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Primary outcomes and any late-cycle national environment shifts remain the principal variables that could alter the current market positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
78%
民主党
20%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$3,095 交易量
78%
民主党
$2,217 交易量
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party a 77.5 percent implied probability of holding the House seat in November 2026. The district’s R+6 partisan voting index, anchored in suburban St. Louis counties, has consistently supported Republican candidates, most recently delivering incumbent Ann Wagner a 54.5 percent victory in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including Wagner, have filed for the August 4 primary, while Democrats field a competitive primary slate but face structural headwinds. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in 2025, yet independent race raters continue to classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Primary outcomes and any late-cycle national environment shifts remain the principal variables that could alter the current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$5,312结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party a 77.5 percent implied probability of holding the House seat in November 2026. The district’s R+6 partisan voting index, anchored in suburban St. Louis counties, has consistently supported Republican candidates, most recently delivering incumbent Ann Wagner a 54.5 percent victory in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including Wagner, have filed for the August 4 primary, while Democrats field a competitive primary slate but face structural headwinds. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in 2025, yet independent race raters continue to classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Primary outcomes and any late-cycle national environment shifts remain the principal variables that could alter the current market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,312结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat, with traders assigning the party a 77.5 percent implied probability of holding the House seat in November 2026. The district’s R+6 partisan voting index, anchored in suburban St. Louis counties, has consistently supported Republican candidates, most recently delivering incumbent Ann Wagner a 54.5 percent victory in 2024. Multiple Republicans, including Wagner, have filed for the August 4 primary, while Democrats field a competitive primary slate but face structural headwinds. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the seat to its target list in 2025, yet independent race raters continue to classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Primary outcomes and any late-cycle national environment shifts remain the principal variables that could alter the current market positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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