Incumbent Rep. Ann Wagner maintains a double-digit lead over Democrat Ray Greaves in recent polls for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat with an R+8 partisan voter index that Trump carried by 23 points in 2020. Trader consensus reflects this at 79.5% for a Republican hold, bolstered by Wagner's superior fundraising—over $1.3 million cash-on-hand versus Greaves' under $100,000—and consistent October surveys showing her ahead 52-38%. No major shifts have emerged in the past week amid steady early voting turnout favoring Republicans, with the November 5 election unlikely to see a late swing barring unforeseen scandals or national coattails.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
80%
民主党
20%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$1,439 交易量
80%
民主党
$0 交易量
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ann Wagner maintains a double-digit lead over Democrat Ray Greaves in recent polls for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat with an R+8 partisan voter index that Trump carried by 23 points in 2020. Trader consensus reflects this at 79.5% for a Republican hold, bolstered by Wagner's superior fundraising—over $1.3 million cash-on-hand versus Greaves' under $100,000—and consistent October surveys showing her ahead 52-38%. No major shifts have emerged in the past week amid steady early voting turnout favoring Republicans, with the November 5 election unlikely to see a late swing barring unforeseen scandals or national coattails.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$1,439结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ann Wagner maintains a double-digit lead over Democrat Ray Greaves in recent polls for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat with an R+8 partisan voter index that Trump carried by 23 points in 2020. Trader consensus reflects this at 79.5% for a Republican hold, bolstered by Wagner's superior fundraising—over $1.3 million cash-on-hand versus Greaves' under $100,000—and consistent October surveys showing her ahead 52-38%. No major shifts have emerged in the past week amid steady early voting turnout favoring Republicans, with the November 5 election unlikely to see a late swing barring unforeseen scandals or national coattails.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,439结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Ann Wagner maintains a double-digit lead over Democrat Ray Greaves in recent polls for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, a reliably Republican seat with an R+8 partisan voter index that Trump carried by 23 points in 2020. Trader consensus reflects this at 79.5% for a Republican hold, bolstered by Wagner's superior fundraising—over $1.3 million cash-on-hand versus Greaves' under $100,000—and consistent October surveys showing her ahead 52-38%. No major shifts have emerged in the past week amid steady early voting turnout favoring Republicans, with the November 5 election unlikely to see a late swing barring unforeseen scandals or national coattails.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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