Missouri’s 2nd congressional district maintains a Republican lean reflected in its R+6 partisan voting index and the incumbent’s consistent performance, anchoring the 78% Republican probability in trader consensus. Republican Ann Wagner, first elected in 2012 and re-elected with 54.5% in 2024, faces a competitive but limited primary field ahead of the August 4, 2026 primary, while Democrats have placed the seat on the DCCC target list for the first time since 2020 amid suburban shifts. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s suburban St. Louis and Franklin County composition. These structural and incumbency factors outweigh early Democratic recruitment efforts, sustaining the current implied probabilities ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
78%
民主党
20%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$3,188 交易量
78%
民主党
$2,160 交易量
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 2nd congressional district maintains a Republican lean reflected in its R+6 partisan voting index and the incumbent’s consistent performance, anchoring the 78% Republican probability in trader consensus. Republican Ann Wagner, first elected in 2012 and re-elected with 54.5% in 2024, faces a competitive but limited primary field ahead of the August 4, 2026 primary, while Democrats have placed the seat on the DCCC target list for the first time since 2020 amid suburban shifts. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s suburban St. Louis and Franklin County composition. These structural and incumbency factors outweigh early Democratic recruitment efforts, sustaining the current implied probabilities ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$5,347结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 2nd congressional district maintains a Republican lean reflected in its R+6 partisan voting index and the incumbent’s consistent performance, anchoring the 78% Republican probability in trader consensus. Republican Ann Wagner, first elected in 2012 and re-elected with 54.5% in 2024, faces a competitive but limited primary field ahead of the August 4, 2026 primary, while Democrats have placed the seat on the DCCC target list for the first time since 2020 amid suburban shifts. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s suburban St. Louis and Franklin County composition. These structural and incumbency factors outweigh early Democratic recruitment efforts, sustaining the current implied probabilities ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$5,347结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 2nd congressional district maintains a Republican lean reflected in its R+6 partisan voting index and the incumbent’s consistent performance, anchoring the 78% Republican probability in trader consensus. Republican Ann Wagner, first elected in 2012 and re-elected with 54.5% in 2024, faces a competitive but limited primary field ahead of the August 4, 2026 primary, while Democrats have placed the seat on the DCCC target list for the first time since 2020 amid suburban shifts. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s suburban St. Louis and Franklin County composition. These structural and incumbency factors outweigh early Democratic recruitment efforts, sustaining the current implied probabilities ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题