Republican Anna Paulina Luna holds a clear edge in Florida’s 13th congressional district heading into the 2026 midterms, with traders assigning her party a 69.5% implied probability of retaining the seat. The district’s Republican-leaning partisan voting index and limited boundary changes after redistricting provide structural support for the incumbent, who faces Democrat Leela Gray in the November general election. Gray’s strong early fundraising has positioned her as a credible challenger and produced a narrow May poll lead for Luna, yet the underlying voter composition and Luna’s established name recognition continue to anchor market sentiment toward Republican retention. Primaries on August 18 will further clarify the matchup before the November contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
69%
民主党
29%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$221 交易量
69%
民主党
$832 交易量
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Anna Paulina Luna holds a clear edge in Florida’s 13th congressional district heading into the 2026 midterms, with traders assigning her party a 69.5% implied probability of retaining the seat. The district’s Republican-leaning partisan voting index and limited boundary changes after redistricting provide structural support for the incumbent, who faces Democrat Leela Gray in the November general election. Gray’s strong early fundraising has positioned her as a credible challenger and produced a narrow May poll lead for Luna, yet the underlying voter composition and Luna’s established name recognition continue to anchor market sentiment toward Republican retention. Primaries on August 18 will further clarify the matchup before the November contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
交易量
$1,053结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Anna Paulina Luna holds a clear edge in Florida’s 13th congressional district heading into the 2026 midterms, with traders assigning her party a 69.5% implied probability of retaining the seat. The district’s Republican-leaning partisan voting index and limited boundary changes after redistricting provide structural support for the incumbent, who faces Democrat Leela Gray in the November general election. Gray’s strong early fundraising has positioned her as a credible challenger and produced a narrow May poll lead for Luna, yet the underlying voter composition and Luna’s established name recognition continue to anchor market sentiment toward Republican retention. Primaries on August 18 will further clarify the matchup before the November contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,053结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Anna Paulina Luna holds a clear edge in Florida’s 13th congressional district heading into the 2026 midterms, with traders assigning her party a 69.5% implied probability of retaining the seat. The district’s Republican-leaning partisan voting index and limited boundary changes after redistricting provide structural support for the incumbent, who faces Democrat Leela Gray in the November general election. Gray’s strong early fundraising has positioned her as a credible challenger and produced a narrow May poll lead for Luna, yet the underlying voter composition and Luna’s established name recognition continue to anchor market sentiment toward Republican retention. Primaries on August 18 will further clarify the matchup before the November contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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