Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82% implied probability for Elder Scrolls VI releasing by December 31, driven by Bethesda's silence on any 2024 window amid a packed pipeline including Starfield's Shattered Space DLC launch this fall and ongoing Fallout support post-TV series success. Announced in 2018 with a brief teaser, the RPG juggernaut—successor to 2011's Skyrim—mirrors Starfield's seven-year dev cycle, with Todd Howard confirming active early production but no firm timeline at recent Xbox showcases. Absent surprise announcements at events like The Game Awards, historical Bethesda delays and Microsoft's multi-year RPG slate (Fable, Avowed) solidify trader bets on a 2026+ debut.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
市场开放时间： Mar 18, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 18, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elder Scrolls VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source will be official information from Bethesda Softworks or its parent company, Microsoft.
交易量
$0结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 18, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 82% implied probability for Elder Scrolls VI releasing by December 31, driven by Bethesda's silence on any 2024 window amid a packed pipeline including Starfield's Shattered Space DLC launch this fall and ongoing Fallout support post-TV series success. Announced in 2018 with a brief teaser, the RPG juggernaut—successor to 2011's Skyrim—mirrors Starfield's seven-year dev cycle, with Todd Howard confirming active early production but no firm timeline at recent Xbox showcases. Absent surprise announcements at events like The Game Awards, historical Bethesda delays and Microsoft's multi-year RPG slate (Fable, Avowed) solidify trader bets on a 2026+ debut.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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